https://preview.redd.it/d23or4ml5nu51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=e27f4858fc4f06d17875023c5a3f87717104bcae Visit us at https://bitcoincalculator.org Use this bitcoin calculator to find out exactly how much your bitcoin is worth in any of the supported global currencies, using accurate, up-to-date exchange rates. Get real-time and historical trends in the BTC value for your selected currency and easily perform any of the following currency conversions: - BTC to USD - BTC to AUD - BTC to BRL - BTC to CAD - BTC to CHF - BTC to CLP - BTC to CNY - BTC to DKK - BTC to EUR - BTC to GBP - BTC to HKD - BTC to INR - BTC to ISK - BTC to JPY - BTC to KRW - BTC to NZD - BTC to PLN - BTC to RUB - BTC to SEK - BTC to THB - BTC to TRY - BTC to TWD Sign up to any of our recommended bitcoin exchanges to start buying and selling BTC today. Features: - Backed by real-time price data and interactive charts - Total circulating BTC - Market capitalization - Daily trade volume - Easy access to your favorite exchanges
Hi there! I am new to Crypto and have a particular situation that maybe someone in this sub will help me with. I was in New Zealand 5 years ago with a working holiday visa and when I left the country I kept my bank account open with some NZD in it. A few months ago I used that money to buy some bitcoins through easycrypto, then I used another exchange to turn that BTC to another crypto and that crypto price went up so I made some profits. I am not a New Zealand resident (or tax resident as well) so I was wondering at what rate will this be taxed if I sell those BTC through Easycrypto and withdraw that NZD to my bank account. thanks for your help! sorry for my english as it's my second language EDIT: thanks for your answers, looks like there are different opinions regarding the bank witholding something or not. I'll probably contact easycrypto to see what their opinion is because I am probably not the first with this doubt. Also I am not trying to avoid taxes per se, just trying to figure out costs and liabilities of putting that money back in NZ bank account. It's not the same if the bank withold some tax and that's all or if I also have to file some tax forms or something like that. I'll update this if easycrypto adds some new info
Background e intro La Union Europea y en cuestión el Area Economica Europea o single market es un colectivo de veintiocho estados, cuales en su mayoría abolieron todo tipo de controles migratorios internos. También llamado Area Schengen, aunque esta, no incluye los veintiocho miembros sino, veintiséis. De la misma manera, el “single market” o Eurosystem, mercado común europeo y su moneda de facto el Euro, ISO 4217 : EUR no se usa en todos los miembros del área política. Sin embargo todos los miembros de la Union Europea y varias de las jurisdicciones que no usan el Euro como su moneda de intercambio oficial (Romania, Polonia, Suiza, Dependencias de la corona, etc.) son parte del área SEPA compuesta por 36 miembros. SEPA, Single Euro Payment Area es un protocolo de créditos y débitos bancarios entre personas físicas o legales de rápida ejecución operando 100% bajo el estándar IBAN. Es moderno comparado con otros sistemas similares como el ACH o wires locales americanos, ciertamente anticuados y de un costo mucho mas alto de operar. Por regulación del ECB (European Central Bank) los pagos SEPA ya sean créditos o débitos deben ser gratuitos y se considera ilegal cobrar por una transferencia SEPA. Esto dicho, varias instituciones cobran un “fee” por la ejecución de transferencias SEPA bajo alguna descripción a modo de eufemismo. Si bien SEPA es considerado relativamente moderno, SEPA ICT (Instant Credit Transfer) ya se encuentra desarrollado y en proceso de implementación. Bajo el nuevo standard, las transferencias SEPA son ejecutadas en tiempo real con el fin de incentivar la implementación y adopción de las tecnologías fintech desarrolladas por privados bajo el tutelaje del ECB. Desde hace aproximadamente diez años, el ECB comenzó a liberalizar el mercado bancario a modo de desconcentrar el monopolio de la banca europea. De esta manera dieron comienzo a las entidades EMI (Electronic Money Institutions). Entidades quasi bancarias, las cuales pueden ofrecer IBANs personales de manera instantánea y emitir tarjetas de pago (en general no debito sino prepagas directamente ligadas a una cuenta personal). Regulación La flexibilización de la banca europea via fintech tiene sus rarezas, la mayoría de las nuevos “bank challengers” usaron frases del tipo “we are not a bank, we are better tan a bank” y similares. Muy cool a los ojos de un millenial rebelde sin embargo el wording es exacto. Una entidad EMI no es un banco, no está siquiera remotamente cerca de serlo. Estas entidades no operan con efectivo, ni en general ofrecen créditos, o inversiones o tasas de interés (mas allá de que la tasa de interés del ECB se encuentra en el área negativa hace años) porque la verdad es que una entidad EMI no está a autorizada a tomar depósitos en Euros. Cuando decimos “Electronic Money Institution” en realidad debería leerse más como “token”, la gente que usa crypto entenderá de manera más fácil. Al momento del depósito, la entidad mueve nuestros Euros a una cuenta a su nombre en una entidad bancaria real en general en la jurisdicción en la cual está registrada y licenciada aunque esto no es necesario. Los depósitos, a diferencia de un banco, no se pueden ofrecer a modo de prestamos ni se pueden invertir y se deben mantener segregados. Como una especie de cuenta escrow. En el mismo momento, de manera instantánea intercambia 1 for 1 cada euro por un token dentro de su plataforma al que le podemos poner el símbolo y nombre de euro pero al mismo tiempo no lo es. Al momento de efectuar un pago fuera de la plataforma el ejecutor intercambia nuevamente nuestro token por 1 euro cash que se encuentra depositado en la cuenta escrow y lo envía via SEPA o SEPA card hacia un comercio o una persona física/juridica a modo de pago. Esta pequeña diferencia hace que el statement “we are not a bank” tenga un significado mucho más verosímil en lo legal de lo aparentemente anunciado. Y por esta razón, suelen lidiar con clientes de mayor riesgo que un banco tradicional. A manera de un sandbox monetario. El problema principal, más allá de la oferta de banca básica y el peligro de que la entidad desaparezca de la noche a la mañana sin dejar rastro. Los depósitos en las EMIs no están cubiertos por el seguiro de depósitos de ninguna jurisdicción ni por el ECB. En un comienzo, hace unos años uno podía abrir una cuenta en algún país del báltico, recibir una tarjeta MasterCard en Euros y empezar a recibir pagos de manera instantánea luego de un onboarding básico de 5 minutos vía una App. Algunos proveedores inclusive ofrecen una dirección de Bitcoin a la cual, si uno envía BTC, es convertido automáticamente a depósitos en EUR a la cotización del momento del clearing de la transaccion. Suena too good to be true no? Bueno MasterCard y Visa también pensaron eso. En el 2018 cancelaron todas las tarjetas de los EMIs en Europa y renegociaron las licencias de emisión. Muchos proveedores de servicios financieros nunca emitieron tarjetas nuevamente y se dedicaron solo a cuentas virtuales. Los proveedores que sobrevivieron y encontraron su nicho se vieron en una situación grow or die. Pero como se puede crecer sin poder ofrecer más servicios bancarios, crypto estaba sufiendo un slump terrible… Ah si, licencias bancarias. Y así llegamos al presente, donde “we are not a bank” es una falacia y si, ya somos un banco. Tenemos una licencia, aseguramos tus depósitos y podemos ofrecer más servicios bancarios. El passporting de servicios está en toda su gloria, a costo de muchos de nuestros beneficios. La consecuencia principal? Todos los usuarios de riesgo, eliminados. Non-residents? Fuera, Gambling? Fuera, Crypto trading? Fuera… KYC más estricto(si se lo puede llamar asi), mayor escrutinio de transacciones, CRS, suspensiones de cuentas y otros detalles están a la orden del día. En la situación actual, siguen existiendo EMIs que hacen menos preguntas al costo de algunos Euros por mes. Donde podemos enviar y recibir fondos de un crypto Exchange o de TransferWise (a contrariedad deBruBank*… EJEM…*) y operar pagos de manera normal. No es un arreglo definitivo pero es de bajo costo y puede servir de “buffer” entre negocios que pueden atraer cierto escrutinio a nuestras cuentas en banco tradicionales. Obviamente esto es un arma de doble filo y afecta a todos los miembros de la cadena de la misma forma. En mi caso, tuve que hacer un “White listing” luego de un intercambio de emails con soporte, de cuentas en Lithuania en las Crypto Exchanges que uso porque no querían procesar mis depósitos y ponían todas mis transacciones on hold de manera indefinida. La explicación? “Too much fraud from those suppliers”. Esto dicho, para las instituciones que no son crypto friendly, esto puede ser la salvación. Un depósito de otra cuenta a tu nombre es mejor que un depósito a nombre de Kraken Payward o Bitstamp Limited. Las licencias bancarias son un gran desarrollo para el mundo fintech europeo, lamentablemente tiene un gran costo a nivel usuario. Hay muchos menos proveedores que ofrezcan servicio a no residentes. Los riesgos de los EMIs son reales, muchos han desaparecido sin dejar rastro, otros como WorldCore se vieron enrollados en lavado de dinero Ruso y cancelación masiva de sus tarjetas por parte de Visa y MasterCard Europe a punto tal que se vieron obligados a cerrar. WorldCore sigue en venta hoy día. SataBank un banco digital basado en Malta de capitales Bulgaros entro en administración para nunca más reaparecer. Otros tuvieron que reinventarse o separarse. PayMix se disolvió en dos compañías una para personas físicas y otra para personas legales. Ejemplos de este tipo existen por montones. Instituciones de interés
Globitex – UK/Lithuania https://globitex.com/euro-wallet Licencia: Crypto UK/Wallet EMI Lithuania Cuentas: Personal/Business Tarjeta: No. No residentes: Si. Detalle: Globitex es un crypto broker el cual simplifica el intercambio de crypto por fiat via el uso de un servicio de wallet (EMI) el cual posee un IBAN personalal y unico a nombre del UBO de la cuenta. El servicio tiene algunos costos sin embargo es una buena alternativa para ejecutar pagos via SEPA. En este momento 14 dias de trading sin costo, imagino que las operaciones de la cuenta si tienen costo, sin embargo desde que empezaron a ofrecer el servicio, los cargos por operar se han reducido substancialmente.
MisterTango – Lithuania https://www.mistertango.com/en/ Licencia: EMI Cuentas: Personal/Business Tarjeta: Temporalmente suspendidas. No residentes: Si. Detalle: Las cuentas funcionan, la mía personalmente desde hace más de 2 años. Existe integración a su propia exchange de crypto. Ofrecen servicios para traders de crypto y dirección de BTC con deposito a EUR instantáneo. Hay que tener en cuenta que la oferta de servicios en el pasado era muy superior. Incluía dirección de BTC, transferencias SWIFT, transferencias SEPA, tarjeta MasterCard Euro, acceso al Exchange, top up de la cuenta via tarjetas de debito/crédito y opción de una API para facturar. Hoy día está dividido en diferentes segmentos y el pricing varía según el paquete elegido, nacionalidad y residencia.
LeoPay – Bulgaria https://leopay.eu/ Licencia: EMI Cuentas: Personal/Business con preferencia a Estonian e-residents. Tarjeta: Si, debito Visa, con condición de dos tarjetas por cuenta o una tarjeta por currency. No residentes: Si. Detalle: Originalmente llamado LeuPay registrado en Malta de capitales Bulgaros. Usaban de backend SataBank, así que si leyeron lo anterior entenderán el cambio de nombre de la entidad. Cuentas multicurrency en EUR, USD, GBP, CHF, RON, HRK, JPY, BGN, PLN, CZK.
Paysera – Lituania https://www.paysera.lt/v2/lt-LT/index Licencia: EMI Cuentas: Personal/Business. Es posible obtener más de una cuenta por cliente. Tarjeta: Si, debito Visa. No residentes: Si.
PayMix Pro – Malta https://www.paymix.pro/ Licencia: Institución financiera Maltesa Cuentas: Business Tarjeta: Debito No residentes: Si.
Deutsche Handelsbank – Alemania https://www.handelsbank.com/en/bc/home-business-customers.html Licencia: Bancaria propia. Cuentas: Business. Es posible obtener más de una cuenta por cliente. Tarjeta: No. No residentes: Si. Detalle: Es un pequeño banco alemán que se especializan en cuentas únicamente para personas legales con licencia y backend bancario propio.
N26 – Alemania Licencia: Bancaria propia. Cuentas: Personal/Business Tarjetas: Debito/Crédito No residentes: No*. Detalle: No aceptan no-residentes en el Area economía europea, sin embargo si aceptan pasaporte Argentino y cualquier numero de móvil. El requerimiento es una dirección de correo en el Área Económica para recibir la tarjeta. (Chripre no es una opción para la dirección).
Revolut – Lithuania/UK https://www.revolut.com/ Licencia: Bancaria propia (UK) Cuentas: Personal/Business. Tarjeta: Si, variedad dependiendo del tier. No residentes: No* Detalle: Revolut evoluciono desde una licencia de EMI a una entidad con licencia bancaria. Siempre en las noticias por las razones equivocadas, han quedado atrás los días en los que la banca Lituana los decepcionaba. Lamentablemente los reportes de cuentas congeladas persisten y rehabilitarlas puede tardarse meses. Revoluto ofrece tarjetas con conversión de divisas usando el mid-market rate y sin FX conversion fee. Ofrecen crypto trade (CFDs) y muy recientemente una plataforma de inversiones. Si han leído mi post titulado Banca internacional #02 – United Kingdom, where it all began y repararon en el detalle de que la licencia bancaria es de Reino Unido, si, están en lo correcto. Esta entidad no puede técnicamente aceptar no-residentes si tiene una licencia bancaria ringfenced. Sin embargo, tal como es el caso con varias de alternativas, una dirección de correo dentro de Reino Unido o Europa suele bastarle a los clientes para hacerse de una cuenta. UPDATE: Recientemente Revolut agrego un setting muy interesante, la cual permite, una vez registrados como clientes cambiar la residencia fiscal. No hay muchos datos con respecto a qué efectos tiene sobre la cuenta más allá de una suspensión quasi instantánea. Sin embargo! Según la jurisdicción de residencia fiscal seleccionada, también nos puede dar como opción “Email us to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) and let’s see what we can do.”
TransferWise https://transferwise.com/ Licencia: Money transfer (UK), EMI (Lithiania) Cuentas: Personal/Business y Borderless, 4 currencies GBP, EUR, NZD, AUD y condicionalmente USD. Tarjeta: Si, MasterCard para residentes del Area Economica Europea. No residentes: Si. Detalle: Conocido por casi todos hoy día, la aplicación de cabecera para remittances elegida por todos los millenials. No es la mejor sin embargo es la que tiene mejor publicidad y estrategia. Se sabe que hay clientes quienes han usado datos postales europeos para registrarse y han logrado recibir la tarjeta en condición de no residentes.
Disponibles fuera de sus países de registro en breve
Insha – Alemania con backing de Al Baraka (Turquía) https://www.getinsha.com/ Detalle: Primer banca islámica digital en Europa. Que esto no los detenga en ver el servicio que ofrecen. Dado los servicios que ofrecen (y la carencia de interés computado en depósitos) es una plataforma idea para banca Islámica.
Kontist – Alemania https://kontist.com/ Detalle: Banca digital para pequeños negocios o freelancers con implementación de contabilidad y taxación.
Tarjetas Algunos EMIs solo ofrecen tarjetas. En general son productos sub-prime y consecuentemente los fees son usureros. No voy a entrar en detalle sobre el ofrecimiento de servicios de estos proveedores, pero les dejo algunos por una cuestión de mera curiosidad y cobertura de alternativas.
Nota final Existen muchos servicios más de tipo pseudo bancario en Europa. Podría publicar un post infinito con 500 URLs y links a cada uno de ellos. Muchos con respaldo de Bancos centenarios y prácticamente todos con requerimiento de residencia en la Unión Europea. Si desean mas información, puedo hacer un post apartado. Pero más allá del landing page, no van a poder utilizar ningún servicio. Es más fácil abrir una cuenta en un banco normal para no residentes en Europa de manera personal que intentar circunventar la legislación y regulación pertinente a los bancos o EMIs digitales reservados para Europeos. Donations.
How risky is it to buy an ex-bitcoin mining graphics card of 12 months?
So I'm looking for a graphics card to run VR and I came across a GTX 1070 but it was used for mining bitcoin for 12 months previously. If I buy it, how long do I have till it shits itself? Edit: the price is $450 NZD
I've been working on a bot for crypto subs like /r/bitcoin for a few days now. Say hello to crypto_bot!
Hey guys, I've been working on crypto_bot for some time now. It provides a bunch of features that I hope will enhance your experience on /bitcoin (and any other subreddit). You can call it by mentioning it in a comment. I started working on this a few days ago. I'm constantly adding new features and will update this post when I do, but if you're interested I'll post all updates and some tips at /crypto_bot. Please either comment here, message me, or post there if you'd like to report a bug, request a feature, or offer feedback. There's also one hidden command :) You can call multiple commands in one comment. Here's a description of the commands you can use:
Responds with the USD price of one bitcoin from an average of six of the top bitcoin exchanges (BTC-E, Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Coinbase, Kraken, Cryptsy).
Responds with the USD price of one bitcoin at seven exchanges (all of the ones listed above, plus LocalBitcoins). Also lists the average at the bottom.
Responds with the USD price of one bitcoin from [exchange] (any of the seven listed above).
Responds with the USD price of one litecoin, or the price of 1 doge and 1,000 doge.
crypto_bot litecoin|ltc [exchange]
Responds with the USD price of one litecoin from BTC-E, Bitfinex, Kraken, or Cryptsy.
Responds with the price of one bitcoin in the specified currency. Available currencies (symbols): JPY, CNY, SGD, HKD, CAD, NZD, AUD, CLP, GBP, DKK, SEK, ISK, CHF, BRL, EUR, RUB, PLN, THB, KRW, TWD.
crypto_bot [about|info] [arg]
Responds with a short description about [arg], as well as a link to an external site (Wikipedia, bitcoin.it, and some others) for more information. You can list multiple arguments and get a description for each. Available arguments: bitcoin, block chain, transaction, address, genesis, satoshi, mining, confirmation, coinbase, gox, cold wallet, hot wallet.
Responds with calculations and information about how a miner would do with the above data (mining calculator). The only required field is mining speed. Order of the arguments does not matter. Everything other than hashrate defaults to the following if not given: w (watts): 0, kwh ($kilowatt cost/hour): 0, difficulty: current network difficulty, hc$ (hardware cost): $0, $: current bitcoin price in usd (according to Coinbase), % (pool fee): 0. The calculator does not account for nor allow for input of the increase/decrease of difficulty over time, though I may add this feature soon. Working hashing speeds: h/s, kh/s, mh/s, gh/s, th/s, ph/s. Example usage: "crypto_bot calc 30th/s 10w .12kwh hc$55 1.5%" (to make it easier to remember, th/s can also be inputted as ths). This calls the bot with a hashrate of 30 th/s, electricity usage of 10w, a cost of $.12 kWh, a hardware cost of $55, and a pool fee of 1.5%.
crypto_bot number of btc <$amount to convert> [bp$bitcoin price]
Responds with the number of bitcoins you could buy with <$amount to convert>. If the comment specifies a [bp$bitcoin price], it calculates it with that exchange rate. Otherwise, it uses the rate from Coinbase. Example usage: "crypto_bot $419.29 bp$180.32" This calculates how many bitcoins you can buy if you have $419.29 and the bitcoin exchange rate is $180.32.
Signs a message in the bitcoin block chain in a transaction using OP_RETURN. The message must be less than 40 characters. Example usage: "SignMessage! "Post messages in the block chain!"" I hope you find this bot useful! Again, if you have any questions or comments, please either comment on this post, message me, or post on /crypto_bot. Update 1 (June 24, 2015, 17:35): The bot now responds with information if you post a link to a block, transaction, or address on Blockchain.info in a comment, even if you don't call it. For example, if I wrote "https://blockchain.info/block/0000000000000000126448be07fb1f82af19fbbf07dd7e07ebcd08d42c2660cb" in a comment, it would respond with information about block #362,377. Update 2 (July 10, 2015, 1:59): The bot now has two additional commands: "unconfirmed transactions" (or "unconfirmed tx") and "explain transaction delay" (or "explain tx delay"). The first command responds with the number of unconfirmed transactions, and the second explains why transactions might take extra time to confirm. Update 3 (August 24, 2015, 1:34): The bot now responds in a better way than before when transaction ids or addresses are posted. Before, it only responded when the transaction id or address was used in a link to Blockchain.info. Now the bot will respond whenever a transaction id or address is posted at all; a link to Blockchain.info is no longer necessary. Update 4 (August 27, 2015, 3:00): The bot can now sign messages in the Bitcoin block chain using OP_RETURN.
05-27 00:23 - 'FAKE MONEY SUPPLIER (TEL: +905395201869 ) EURO, DOLLAR, GBP / / Do you want to buy counterfeit money that looks real with Great Prices and Highest Quality ? / / WhatsApp +905395201860 / E-mail: [...' by /u/Uvsubmakerter removed from /r/Bitcoin within 56-66min
''' FAKE MONEY SUPPLIER (TEL: +905395201869 ) EURO, DOLLAR, GBP Do you want to buy counterfeit money that looks real with Great Prices and Highest Quality ? WhatsApp +905395201860 E-mail: [[email protected]]1 [[link]3 Our bills/notes bypass everything, counterfeit pens, and machines. Can be used in banks and can be used elsewhere same as normal money. We are using the best HOLOGRAMS AND DUPLICATING MACHINES for printing. Our banknotes are printed on 80% cotton 20% cellulose paper. The notes are substantially different from normal paper. By using a special printing technique, several picture elements on the front of the banknote are identifiable by touch. The guidelines on detecting counterfeit currency give a comparison of genuine and falsified security features. Security Features Intaglio printing Watermarks Security thread See-through register Special foil/special foil elements Iridescent stripe / shifting colors. Different serial numbers Currencies we Produce EUR - Euro USD - US Dollar DNR - DINAR GBP - British Pound INR - Indian Rupee AUD - Australian Dollar CAD - Canadian Dollar AED - Emirati Dirham ZAR - Rand CHF - Swiss Franc Our Available Currencies CNY - Chinese Yuan Renminbi MYR - Malaysian Ringgit THB - Thai Baht NZD - New Zealand Dollar SAR - Saudi Arabian Riyal QAR - Qatari Riyal KWD - Kuwaiti Dinar AFN - Afghan Afghani BHD - Bahraini Dinar OMR - Omani Rial ''' Context Link Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: Uvsubmakerter 1: mailto:[email protected] 2: a****etradeca*h.com 3: ac*i*et*a*ecash.c*m]^^* Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
[2015-08-19] Challenge #228 [Intermediate] Use a Web Service to Find Bitcoin Prices
Modern web services are the core of the net. One website can leverage 1 or more other sites for rich data and mashups. Some notable examples include the Google maps API which has been layered with crime data, bus schedule apps, and more. Today's a bit of a departure from the typical challenge, there's no puzzle to solve but there is code to write. For this challenge, you'll be asked to implement a call to a simple RESTful web API for Bitcoin pricing. This API was chosen because it's freely available and doesn't require any signup or an API key. Furthermore, it's a simple GET request to get the data you need. Other APIs work in much the same way but often require API keys for use. The Bitcoin API we're using is documented here: http://bitcoincharts.com/about/markets-api/ Specifically we're interested in the /v1/trades.csv endpoint. Your native code API (e.g. the code you write and run locally) should take the following parameters:
The short name of the bitcoin market. Legitimate values are (choose one): bitfinex bitstamp btce itbit anxhk hitbtc kraken bitkonan bitbay rock cbx cotr vcx
The short name of the currency you wish to see the price for Bitcoin in. Legitimate values are (choose one): KRW NMC IDR RON ARS AUD BGN BRL BTC CAD CHF CLP CNY CZK DKK EUR GAU GBP HKD HUF ILS INR JPY LTC MXN NOK NZD PEN PLN RUB SAR SEK SGD SLL THB UAH USD XRP ZAR
The API call you make to the bitcoincharts.com site will yield a plain text response of the most recent trades, formatted as CSV with the following fields: UNIX timestamp, price in that currency, and amount of the trade. For example:
Your API should return the current value of Bitcoin according to that exchange in that currency. For example, your API might look like this (in F# notation to show types and args):
val getCurrentBitcoinPrice : exchange:string -> currency:string -> float
Which basically says take two string args to describe the exchange by name and the currency I want the price in and return the latest price as a floating point value. In the above example my code would return 349.25. Part of today's challenge is in understanding the API documentation, such as the format of the URL and what endpoint to contact.
Many thanks to adrian17 for finding this API for this challenge - it doesn't require any signup to use.
Having a search around on Google, it seems very difficult to buy in NZD. The price is also marked up quite a bit compared to market rate, with at least a $400NZD mark-up. Do any of you know an easy way to get into Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc, and please provide in detail? And what is the process you have set up, in the sense of how to hold and when to sell, due to its volatility? TIA.
S&P Futures Slide, Europe Jumps As Traders Beg For End To Turbulent Week
There is a sense of almost detached resignation amid trading desks as we enter the last trading day of a chaotic, volatile week that has whipsawed and stopped out virtually everyone after the Nasdaq saw the biggest intraday reversal since Thursday and pattern and momentum trading has become impossible amid one headline tape-bomb after another. After yesterday furious tumble and sharp, last hour rebound, US equity futures are once again lower expecting fresh developments in the Huawei CFO arrest and trade war saga while today's payroll report may redirect the Fed's tightening focus in wage growth comes in hotter than the 3.1% expected; at the same time European stocks have rebounded from their worst day in more than two years while Asian shares posted modest gains as investors sought to end a bruising week on a more upbeat note. While stock trading was far calmer than Thursday, signs of stress remained just below the surface as the dollar jumped, Treasuries rose and oil whipsawed amid fears Iran could scuttle today's OPEC deal. The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was up 0.3% on the day, on track to end the week down 2%. After Europe's Stoxx 600 Index sharp drop on Thursday, which tumbled the most since the U.K. voted to leave the EU in 2016, Friday saw Europe's broadest index jump 1.2% as every sector rallied following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall Street where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump. Technology stocks lead gains on Stoxx 600 Index, with the SX8P Index up as much as 2.3%, outperforming the 1.1% gain in the wider index; Nokia topped the sector index with a 5.9% advance in Helsinki after Thursday’s public holiday, having missed out on initial gains from rival Huawei’s troubles that earlier boosted Ericsson. Inderes said the arrest of Huawei CFO over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran will benefit Nokia and Ericsson, who are the main rivals of Huawei and ZTE. Similarly, Jefferies wrote in a note on Chinese networks that China may have to offer significant concessions to buy Huawei an “out of jail” card and reach a trade deal, with China’s tech subsidies and “buy local” policies potentially under attack. "For example, why would Nokia and Ericsson have only 20% share in China’s 4G market," analysts wrote. Meanwhile, energy names were volatile as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). The news sent Fresenius BBB- rated bonds tumbling, renewing fears of a deluge of "fallen angels." On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades. Earlier in the session, Japanese equities outperformed as most Asian gauges nudged higher. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan nudged up 0.2%, though that followed a 1.8 percent drubbing on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.8 percent. Chinese shares, which were up earlier in the day, slipped into negative territory with the blue chips off 0.1 percent.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 also started firmer but were last down 0.4 percent. Markets face a test from U.S. payrolls data later in the session amid speculation that the U.S. economy is heading for a tough patch after years of solid growth. Will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. DB's economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confused traders when late on Thursday, he emphasized the strength of the labor market, throwing a wrench into trader expectations the Fed is poised to pause tightening - arguably the catalyst for Thursday's market-closing ramp following a WSJ article which reported Fed officials were considering whether to signal a new wait-and-see mentality after a likely rate increase at their meeting in December. While Friday's market has stabilized, for many the recent gyrations are just too much. For Dennis Debusschere, head of portfolio strategy at Evercore ISI, there’s still far too much risk to wade back into a market this riven by volatility. “Overall still untradeable in our opinion, until we get more clarity on trade and we think it will pay to wait this out,” he wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “That being said, our desk is open for business if you’re feeling up to trading this backdrop.” Meanwhile, the big question is what happens next year: “The big question mark still is what’s going to happen in 2019” with the Fed, Omar Aguilar, CIO of equities and multi-asset strategies at Charles Schwab, told Bloomberg TV. “The jobs report could easily be the catalyst that will tell us a little more about what the path may be.” Expecting that a big slowdown is coming, interest rate futures rallied hard in massive volumes with the market now pricing in less than half a hike next year, compared to just a month ago when they had been betting on more than two increases. Treasuries extended their blistering rally, driving 10-year yields down to a three-month trough at 2.8260 percent, before last trading at 2.8863 percent. Yields on two-year notes fell a huge 10 basis points at one stage on Thursday and were last at 2.75 percent. Investors also steamrolled the yield curve to its flattest in over a decade, a trend that has historically presaged economic slowdowns and even recessions. The seismic shock spread far and wide. Yields on 10-year paper sank to the lowest in six months in Germany, almost 12 months in Canada and 16 months in Australia. Italian debt climbed as European bonds largely drifted. The greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers ahead of U.S. jobs data that are expected to show hiring slowed last month. The pound fell as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was said to be weighing a plan to postpone the vote on her Brexit deal. In commodity markets, gold firmed to near a five-month peak as the dollar eased and the threat of higher interest rates waned. Spot gold stood 0.1 percent higher at $1,239.49 per ounce. Oil was less favored, however, falling further as OPEC delayed a decision on output cuts while awaiting support from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia. Brent futures fell 0.5 percent to $59.77 a barrel, while U.S. crude also lost half a percent to $51.19. Cryptocurrencies continued their collapse with fresh losses after U.S. regulators dashed hopes that a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund would appear before the end of this year. Market Snapshot
S&P500 futures down 0.4% to 2,680.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 347.69
MXAP up 0.2% to 151.21
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 485.67
Nikkei up 0.8% to 21,678.68
Topix up 0.6% to 1,620.45
Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 26,063.76
Shanghai Composite up 0.03% to 2,605.89
Sensex up 0.9% to 35,631.53
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,681.49
Kospi up 0.3% to 2,075.76
German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.244%
Euro down 0.05% to $1.1368
Italian 10Y yield rose 13.9 bps to 2.835%
Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.46%
Brent futures up 0.2% to $60.16/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,239.70
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.88
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
The arrest of Huawei Technologies Co. Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran has triggered a debate in China over whether to carry on with trade talks with the U.S. or link the two issues and retaliate; Meng will have a bail hearing Friday to determine whether she is a flight risk and should remain in detention during proceedings on extradition to the U.S.
Oil extended losses near $51 a barrel after OPEC entered a second day of talks in an attempt to draw up a deal to cut output. Iran sees no possibility of agreeing to reduce its output, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said Friday
Theresa May met with her top ministers in London on Thursday to discuss options of delaying the Dec. 11 Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal to avoid a landslide defeat that would risk a major U.K. political crisis, according to a person familiar with the matter
EU leaders are poised to turn their next summit into a Brexit crisis meeting, but so far, it doesn’t look like they’re willing to offer her anything that could help to break the deadlock in the U.K. Parliament
Angela Merkel’s long exit from politics begins Friday when her party gathers in Hamburg to decide whether to appoint her chosen successor as its new leader or break with the legacy of her 13 years in charge of Germany
Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria has complained that he is the victim of one ambush after another as his future is called into question amid tensions with populist leaders over a spending spree to fund election policies, according to newspaper Il Giornale
Asian stocks saw cautious gains with the region getting an early tailwind after the sharp rebound on Wall St, where most majors inished lower albeit off worse levels as tech recovered and the DJIA clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) were both higher at the open but gradually pared some of the gains as the risk tone began to turn cautious heading into today’s key-risk NFP jobs data. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp (U/C) were indecisive amid further PBoC inaction in which it remained net neutral for a 5th consecutive week and with the upcoming Chinese trade data over the weekend adding to tentativeness, while pharmaceuticals were the worst hit due to concerns of price declines from the government’s centralized procurement program. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid a similar picture in T-note futures and although early selling pressure was seen in Japanese bonds alongside the strong open in stocks, prices later recovered as the risk appetite somewhat dissipated. Top Asian News - China’s FX Reserves Rose Despite Intervention, Outflow Signs - Hong Kong May Slip Into Recession in 2019, Deutsche Bank Warns - SoftBank Seeks to Assuage Investors on Pre-IPO Mobile Outage - Southeast Asia Reserves Recover a Bit in November as Rout Eases European equities extended on gains from the cash open (Eurostoxx 50 +1.2%) following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall St where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump. Meanwhile, energy names are volatile (currently marginally underperforming) as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades. Top European News
LandSec, Undeterred by Brexit, Makes New Bet on London Offices
Danske Says It’s Looking Into Selling Its Swedish Pension Assets
Chinese Group Agrees to Buy Amer Sports in $5.2 Billion Deal
Bad Air Warnings in London And Paris Peak With Fish And Chips
DXY- Typically rangebound trade in the run up to US labour data, and with markets also monitoring OPEC+ headlines as a decision on whether to cut output and if so by how much remains highly uncertain. The index is hovering just under the 97.000 handle within a 96.767-96.931 band, and well within nearest technical support and resistance levels at 96.300 and 97.311 respectively.
GBP- A marginal G10 underperformer as Cable retreats back below 1.2750 from just above 1.2800 at one stage, but this could be more flow-related rather than anything fundamental as EuGbp rallied towards 0.8930 peaks from just under the big figure into the Frankfurt fixing before drifting back again. However, Halifax house prices were much weaker than expected and latest Brexit news is hardly Sterling supportive given more speculation about delaying the meaningful vote to try and avoid a resounding rejection, even though the Government appears to be resolute and standing firm on December 11.
NZD/AUD- The Kiwi is at the opposite end of a relatively narrow Usd/Major spectrum, and like the Pound also impacted by indirect factors to a degree, if not in the main. Indeed, Nzd/Usd remains capped ahead of 0.6900, but Aud/Nzd is pivoting 1.0500 as the Aussie unit continues to feel the adverse effects of recent bearish impulses, namely softer than forecast Q3 GDP and a more dovish RBA via Debelle. Hence, Aud/Usd is softer between 0.7210-40 parameters and bound to be wary of huge option expiries from 0.7250-60 in 6.6 bn that form a formidable barrier ahead of circa 1.2 bn up at 0.7300.
EUJPY- In the pre-NFP ‘hiatus’ and awaiting anything further on the Italian budget front, option expiries may also exert directional impetus on EuUsd and Usd/Jpy, as the former faces 2+ bn at the 1.1400 strike and latter is flanked by 1+ bn at 112.50 and 113.00.
CAD- The Loonie has pared a bit more lost ground from recent lows, albeit partly due to a broad Usd retracement, eyeing OPEC and also Canada’s jobs report given latest BoC guidance indicating even greater data dependency. Usd/Cad currently just shy of the 1.3400 mark vs 1.3440+ at one stage yesterday.
In commodities, WTI (+0.2%) and Brent (+0.9%) are choppy in what was a volatile session thus far as comments from energy ministers emerged ahead of the key OPEC+ meeting, after yesterday’s OPEC talks ended with no deal for the first time in almost five years. Brent rose after source reports noted that Moscow are ready to cut output by 200k BPD (below OPEC’s desire of 250k-300k but above Russia’s prior “maximum” of 150k) if OPEC are willing to curb production by over 1mln BPD. Prices then fell to session lows following a less constructive tone from Saudi Energy Minister who reiterated that he is not confident there will be a deal today, which came after delegates noted that OPEC talks are focused on a combined OPEC+ cut of 1mln BPD (650k from OPEC and 350k from Non-OPEC). Markets are awaiting the start of the OPEC+ meeting after delegates stated that talks are at deadlocked as Iran appears to be the main sticking point to an OPEC deal, though sources emerged stating that Iran, Venezuela and Libya are set to get exemptions from cuts, adding that OPEC and Russia are looking for a symbolic production commitment from Iran as fears arise that Iran may not be able to follow-through on curb pledges due to US sanctions. In terms of metals, gold hovers around session highs and is set for the best week since August with the USD trading in a tight range ahead of the key US jobs data later today, while London copper rose over a percent is underpinned by the positive risk tone. US Event Calendar
8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 198,000, prior 250,000
Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%; Underemployment Rate, prior 7.4%
Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.5
10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97, prior 97.5; Current Conditions, prior 112.3; Expectations, prior 88.1
3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.0b, prior $10.9b
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The age of innocence has truly gone in financial markets after a turbulent 24 hours but one that saw a spectacular rally after Europe closed last night and one that has steadily carried on in Asia overnight (more on this below). Before we get to that I’m on an intense client marketing roadshow at the moment on the 2019 Credit outlook and there are a litany of worries out there from investors. Maybe I’m trying to be too cute here but I think the problems we’re seeing in credit at the moment are more of a “ghost of Xmas future” rather than a sign of an imminent disaster scenario. However my overall confidence that credit will blow up around the end of this cycle has only intensified in the last couple of weeks. Liquidity is awful in credit and it’s been a broken two way market for several years (probably as long as I’ve worked in it - 24 years). However this has got worse this cycle as the size of the market has grown rapidly but dealer balance sheets have reduced. As such you can buy massive size at new issue but your ability to sell in secondary is constrained to a small percentage of this. This didn’t matter much when inflows dominated - as they mostly did in this cycle pre-2018 - but in a year of outflows across the board the lack of a proper two way market is increasingly being felt. As discussed I don’t think this is the start of the crisis yet but be warned that when this economic cycle does roll over or even starts to operate at stall speed the credit market will be very messy and will influence other markets again. On the positive side and despite a very steep mid-session selloff, US markets ultimately closed well off the lows. The DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ finished -0.32%, -0.15% and +0.42% respectively, though they traded as low as -3.14%, -2.91%, and -2.43% respectively, around noon in New York. At its lows, the S&P 500 was on course for its worst two-session stretch since February, and before that you’d have to go back to August 2015 or 2011 to find the last episode with as steep a two-day drop. The DOW and S&P 500 dipped into negative territory for the year again, but clawed back and are now +0.92% and +0.84% YTD (+3.16% and +2.69% on a total return basis). The NASDAQ has clung to its outperformance, as it is now up +4.13% this year, or +5.20% on a total return basis, though of course the difference is narrower in the low-dividend paying, high-growth tech index. Unsurprisingly, the moves yesterday coincided with higher volatility with the VIX climbing as much as +5.2pts to 25.94 and pretty much back to the October highs, though it too rallied alongside the equity market to end close to flat at 21.15. Meanwhile, the price action was even uglier in Europe as the US lows were around the close. The STOXX 600 plunged -3.09% and is down -4.22% in two days – the most in two days since June 2016. Nowhere was safe. The DAX (-3.48%), CAC (-3.32%), FTSE MIB (-3.54%) and IBEX (-2.75%) all saw huge moves lower. The DAX has now joined the Italy’s FSTEMIB in bear market territory, as it is now -20.49% off its highs earlier this year. The FTSEMIB is down -24.04% from its highs. European Banks – which were already down nearly -27% YTD going into yesterday – tumbled -4.29% for the biggest daily fall since May and the third biggest since immediately after Brexit. The index is now at the lowest since October 2016 and within 17% of the June 2016 lows all of a sudden. US Banks fell -1.87%, though they had dipped -4.3% at their troughs to touch the lowest level since September 2017. As for credit, HY cash spreads in Europe and the US were +8.5bps and +14.8bps wider respectively. For context, US spreads are now at the widest since December 2016 and this is the best performing broad credit market over the last couple of years. In bond markets, 10y Treasuries rallied-2.4bps but was as much as 9bps lower intra-day. Thanks to an outperformance at the front end (two-year fell -3.7bps), the 2s10s curve actually ended a shade steeper at 13.0bps (+1.3bps on the day). However that move for the 10y now puts it at the lowest since September at 2.89%, and only +48.6bps above where we started the year. The spread on the Dec 19 to Dec 18 eurodollar contract – indicative for what is priced into Fed hikes for next year - is down to just 16bps. It was at 60bps in October. This certainly appears to be too low, though a Wall Street Journal article yesterday seemed to signal a willingness by the Fed to moderate its pace of rate hikes. Finally, in Europe, Bunds closed -4.1bps lower at 0.236%. Quite amazing moves with Bunds continuing to defy all fundamental logic and trading instead as a risk-off lightning rod. There was some talk that the sharp moves lower at the open yesterday were exaggerated by the unexpected midweek close for markets in the US which resulted in futures systems failing to be programmed to adjust and orders backing up. However the combination of a -2.25% drop for WTI (-5.2% at the lows) post the OPEC meeting (more below) and the Huawei story that we mentioned yesterday certainly aided to the initial malaise. There was some talk that both the Chinese and US authorities would have been aware of the arrest before last weekend’s talks and as such this story shouldn’t be necessarily a threat to the truce, though Reuters reported last night that President Trump did not know about the planned arrest. The implications of this are unclear, since it could mean that Trump has less direct control over the arresting agency, but it could also indicate that the move is not part of trade policy. Either way, how this development will be key for the market moving forward, especially any response from Chinese officials. This morning in Asia markets are largely trading higher with the Nikkei (+0.60%), Hang Seng (+0.21%), Shanghai Comp (+0.08%) and Kospi (+0.51%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.11%) are pointing towards a flattish start. Meantime crude oil (WTI -0.39% and Brent -0.60%) prices are continuing to trade lower this morning. It wouldn’t be an EMR worth it’s place in the daily schedule without an Italy and Brexit update. As we go to print Italian daily La Stampa has reported that the Italian Premier Conte and Deputy Premier Di Maio are in favour of the resignation of Finance Minister Tria while Deputy Premier Salvini is against his resignation. So signs of tension. In the U.K. a few press articles (like Bloomberg) are suggesting that PM May is considering postponing Tuesday’s big vote. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of substance to the story at the moment but it mentions going back to the EU for concessions on the Irish backstop as one possibility. How the EU will feel would be the obvious question. As mentioned earlier, oil had a difficult session yesterday, falling back to its recent lows with WTI touching a $50 handle and Brent trading back below $60 per barrel. The first day of the OPEC summit did not appear promising for the odds of a new production deal, as the ministers apparently discussed a 1 million barrel per day cut, below the 1.5 million needed to balance the market.The Libyan oil minister abruptly left before the day’s meetings concluded, and the organization canceled their scheduled press conference. The Russian delegation will join the OPEC contingent today in an effort to finalize a deal, but Saudi Energy Minister al-Falih said that “Russia is not ready for a substantial cut.” Watch this space today. Overnight, the Fed Chair Powell delivered an upbeat message on the US economy and the Job market ahead of today’s payrolls release. He said, “our economy is currently performing very well overall, with strong job creation and gradually rising wages,’’ while adding, “in fact, by many national-level measures, our labour market is very strong.’’ Elsewhere, the Fed’s John Williams said yesterday that the biggest challenge which the policy makers are facing is achieving a soft landing. He said, “we have a pretty strong economy -- unemployment pretty low, inflation near our goal -- it’s just managing a soft landing, keeping this expansion going for the next few years.” So will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. Our US economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969. Going into that, yesterday’s ADP employment change report for November was a tad disappointing at 179k (vs. 195k expected) while more interestingly the recent tick up in initial jobless claims held with the print coming in at 231k. The four-week moving average is now 228k and the highest since April having gotten as low as 206k in September. So the climb, while not yet at concerning levels, is certainly notable and worth watching now on a week to week basis. As for the other interesting data points yesterday, the October trade deficit was confirmed as reaching a new cyclical wide. The ISM non-manufacturing print for November was a relative positive after coming in at 60.7, up 0.4pts from October and ahead of expectations for a decline to 59.0. Worth noting is that the three-month moving average of non-manufacturing ISM is now the highest on record which is a fairly reliable lead indicator for private nonfarm payrolls. US durable goods orders for October were revised slightly higher to -4.3% mom from -4.4%, though the core measures stayed at 0.0% mom. Factory orders declined -2.1% mom, though both were nevertheless higher year-on-year. As for the day ahead, the aforementioned November employment in the US will no doubt be front and centre, however, prior to that, we’ve October industrial production prints in Germany and France, along with Q3 labour costs in the former, and the final Q3 GDP revisions for the Euro Area (no change from +0.2% qoq second reading expected). We’ll also get the monthly inflation reporting for November in the UK. Also due out in the US is October wholesale inventories and trade sales, the preliminary December University of Michigan survey and October consumer credit. November foreign reserves data in China is also expected out at some point. Away from that the OPEC/OPEC+ meeting moves into the final day while the ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Brainard are scheduled to speak. Today is also the day that Germany’s ruling CDU party elects a new chair to succeed Merkel. Our FX strategists noted yesterday that according to polls, the result should be a close call between general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karranbauer (AKK) and Friedrich Merz. Broadly speaking, AKK stands for a continuation of the Merkel-era strategy of positioning the CDU at the centre of the political spectrum, whereas Merz stands for a sharpening of the party's traditional profile as a centre-right party. Last night our German economics team put out a piece explaining the event and suggesting that Merz would be good for the DAX and AKK good for the Euro.
US Futures, Global Markets Slide, Spooked By Trump Trade Comments
US index futures and European shares slumped on Tuesday in a volatile, illiquid session punctuated by some headline confusion, while gains in Asian equities were limited after President Donald Trump said he still intends to go ahead with raising tariffs on China imports from 10% to 25% and that it was highly unlikely he would accept China’s request to refrain from the increase, just days before meeting with his counterpart Xi Jinping. While ES losses were modest, it is worth noting that earlier in the session, S&P futures swung sharply, gaining as much as 0.5%, then falling back into negative territory, after algos misinterpreted comments from China foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang. As we reported earlier, during a media briefing Geng first said that Presidents Trump and Xi agreed to reach mutually beneficial agreements, sparking a vicious rally in futures. Just moments later, however, futures erased gains when Geng later said he was referring to a phone call on Nov. 1. The result was the following: Following these fireworks, contracts on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq pointed to a drop at the opening, while Treasuries and the dollar held steady before the Fed’s top two officials were set to speak in the next 48 hours. European equities gave up initial gains and posted small losses as basic resources and travel names underperformed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index edging modestly lower (-0.1%), led by raw materials producers, while bonds rose across Europe and the euro currency edged lower. The pound weakened as traders mulled prospects for parliamentary approval of the Brexit deal, which Trump said could jeopardize Britain’s ability to strike a trade pact with the U.S. Earlier in the session, Asian markets were mostly positive as the region took impetus from the performance on Wall St, where all majors finished with firm gains on return from the Thanksgiving weekend and with retailers buoyed on the back of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. ASX 200 (+1.0%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) were lifted from the open with Australia led higher by tech and financials, while a pullback in USD/JPY limited the upside for the Japanese benchmark. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were mixed with China somewhat dampened by Trump’s hardball tactics ahead of the meeting with Chinese President Xi at this week’s G20, in which he suggested an intention to proceed with raising tariffs on China imports from 10% to 25% and also warned to place tariffs on the remaining USD 267bln of Chinese imports if they fail to reach a favourable outcome for the US. Furthermore, a slowdown of Chinese Industrial Profit growth and concerns in the Hong Kong property sector also contributed the cautiousness in Chinese markets. In addition to today's 8:30am ET comments from Fed vice chair Clarida, trade remains firmly in investors’ minds before leaders of the two biggest economies meet in Buenos Aires at the end of the week. Trump's comments that it is likely the US will slap tariffs on the remaining Chinese imports and raise tariffs on existing tariffed products have weighed on optimism for U.S. stocks, which climbed on Monday amid hopes a strong start to the holiday season thanks to record online sales will keep growth on track. Meanwhile, Fed speakers will be closely watched for any indications of a change in Fed thinking over continued rate hikes. Today Fed vice chair's New York speech at 8:30am will be the main attraction, while Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday will be parsed for any hints on prospects for a pause in rate increases next year after traders reduced expectations for the pace of monetary policy tightening. Elsewhere, emerging market currencies weakened and their shares traded little changed. Bitcoin steadied near $3,700 after plunging 14 percent Monday. In overnight political news, US Special Counsel Mueller's office said former Trump campaign manager Manafort lied to FBI and Special Counsel in violation of plea agreement. In commodities, Brent (+0.2%) and WTI (Unch) are nursing initial losses as focus starts turning to the G20 summit over the weekend where markets may get initial hints of what to expect at the Dec 6th OPEC meeting in Vienna. The Saudi Crown Prince, Russian President and US President are to meet, possibly on the side-lines to decide the future of the global oil market. Talk around the market notes that Prince Mohammed Bin Salman may not able to defy US President Trump’s aim for lower oil prices after the White House stood behind the prince in regard to the killing of journalist Khashoggi. Nonetheless, traders will be watching the summit closely, while in the nearer-term, today will see the release of the weekly API where forecasts see headline crude stockpiles printing a drawdown of 0.6mln barrels. Gold is trading relatively flat as the dollar holds steady following comments from Trump that overnight that he still intends to raise Chinese import tariffs to 25%; these comments come ahead of this week’s G20 summit. Additionally, US-China trade pessimism has caused copper prices to fall for the 3rd consecutive session due to demand concerns. Iron ore futures have dropped to their lowest level in over 4 months, dropping by 5% over concerns that steel prices are to remain pressured by slower demand. Expected data include Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Bank of Nova Scotia, Couche-Tard, and Salesforce are among companies reporting earnings. Market Snapshot
S&P500 futures down 0.2% at 2,663.0
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.07% to 358.59
MXAP up 0.4% to 151.86
MXAPJ up 0.3% to 486.89
Nikkei up 0.6% to 21,952.40
Topix up 0.7% to 1,644.16
Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 26,331.96
Shanghai Composite down 0.04% to 2,574.68
Sensex up 0.5% to 35,524.01
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 5,728.28
Kospi up 0.8% to 2,099.42
German 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 0.349%
Euro down 0.04% to $1.1323
Italian 10Y yield fell 13.6 bps to 2.9%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to 1.536%
Brent futures up 0.6% to $60.83/bbl
Gold spot little changed at $1,223.10
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.15
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
President Donald Trump said he’ll likely push forward with plans to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, indicating he would also slap duties on all remaining imports from the Asian nation if negotiations with China’s leader Xi Jinping fail to produce a trade deal
U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will put her Brexit deal to Parliament for a decisive vote on Dec. 11, but after her plan was savaged from all sides, the signs are she’s on course to lose. President Trump Says Brexit deal could hurt plans for trade pact with U.S.
The Brexit deal negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May will lower economic output over the coming decade compared with staying in the European Union, researchers said. The deal would lower gross domestic product per capita by between 1.9 percent and 5.5 percent versus EU membership, according to a joint paper. Leaving without a deal could lower output per head as much as 8.7 percent.
Italy’s populist government failed to thrash out a new deficit target for the European Union in late night talks but cracks are starting to show in its battle with the bloc over spending
Donald Trump plans to keep Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross amid speculation of a broader shakeup in the president’s Cabinet, according to three people familiar with his thinking
European Union Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom sounds an upbeat note about EU talks with the U.S. on revamping global commercial rules while saying the verdict is out on whether President Donald Trump’s administration will stay engaged
The Turkish lira - - on track for its best November since 2002 -- is once again turning into a favorite for fast-money investors and hedge funds. Short-term carry positions have increased by an estimated $5.4 billion since the end of August, according to QNB Finansbank, an Istanbul-based lender
The Brevan Howard Asia Fund bucked a difficult October for macro funds, and is posting its best return in five years, according to a person with knowledge of the matter
Asian equity markets were mostly positive as the region took impetus from the performance on Wall St, where all majors finished with firm gains on return from the Thanksgiving weekend and with retailers buoyed on the back of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. ASX 200 (+1.0%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) were lifted from the open with Australia led higher by tech and financials, while a pullback in USD/JPY limited the upside for the Japanese benchmark. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were mixed with China somewhat dampened by Trump’s hardball tactics ahead of the meeting with Chinese President Xi at this week’s G20, in which he suggested an intention to proceed with raising tariffs on China imports from 10% to 25% and also warned to place tariffs on the remaining USD 267bln of Chinese imports if they fail to reach a favourable outcome for the US. Furthermore, a slowdown of Chinese Industrial Profit growth and concerns in the Hong Kong property sector also contributed the cautiousness in Chinese markets. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful as prices took a breather from its extended but gradual uptrend and with today’s 40yr auction largely ignored despite increases in the b/c and accepted prices. Top Asian News - Hong Kong’s Home Market Suffering Worst Declines Since 2016 - Day Two Rebound in Asia Stocks Closes an Eye on Trade Rhetoric - Genting Malaysia Says Fox World Lawsuit Won’t Impact Operations European cash indices gave up initial gains (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) following a relatively flat open after pre-market gains in index futures were short-lived. Equity futures staged a pre-cash open rally after it was reported that a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman was quoted as stating that US President Xi and US President Trump had agreed to mutually beneficial agreements. However gains in futures markets were pared after it was later reported that this was in reference to a November 1st phone call and thus was viewed as stale by the market, particularly considering the hardball interview by Trump in the WSJ yesterday ahead of this week’s G20 summit. On an index basis, the SMI lags its peers (-0.5%) with Credit Suisse (-1.7%) lower following a broker downgrade at Credit Suisse. In terms of sector specifics, performance is relatively mixed with slight underperformance in material names in-fitting with recent price action in the complex. To the upside, utility names modestly outperform, albeit the moves thus far across the board are relatively small in terms of magnitude. Individual movers this morning include Dialog Semiconductor (-1.4%) amid Apple-inspired losses (post-Trump threat of potential tariffs on iPhones and laptops), Apple share are down 1.7% pre-market. Elsewhere, Rexel (+1.9%) are firmer following a broker upgrade at Credit Suisse, Thomas Cook (-24.5%) shares are notably underperforming following a disappointing trading update, dragging Tui (-4.2%) lower in sympathy. Top European News
StanChart Is Said to Weigh a Simpler Structure to Control Costs
Bain Is Said to Explore Takeover Bid for Germany’s Osram Licht
UBS Takes Profit on Italy Two-Year Bonds as Budget Tensions Cool
Thomas Cook’s Dismal Year Gets Worse With Latest Profit Warning
Italy Compromise Has Convinced One Fund to Add European Banks
In FX, the DXY was overall bid vs G10 counterparts with the aid of the GBP weakness due to the latest Brexit developments. Moreover, Citi’s rebalancing model points to modest USD buying vs. peers going into month end, while Nordea also notes tomorrow’s HIA which is the cut-off date if companies wish to convert foreign currency into USD along with SOMA that happens to fall on Friday as well. The index is currently hovering above 97.000 within a narrow range around the big figure.
GBP– The standout underperformer vs. peers amid comments from UK Remain loyalist Fallon who said it may be possible to delay the date UK leaves the EU to renegotiate a better deal, inflicting a blow to UK PM May’s so-called “best deal”. As such Cable fell to a low print of 1.2734 ahead of the mid-November base at 1.2724, having already given up the 1.2800 handle following comments from US President Trump who noted that UK may not be able to trade with the US, in an interview last night. If the mid-November low (or Raab trough) is breached, the next levels to note are 1.2696 (October low) and 1.2662 (YTD low). However, looking further ahead Credit Suisse is more optimistic on the outlook for Sterling, with their Cable forecast at 1.4000 by end-2019
EUR– Holding up well vs. the pound above 0.8850 but not quite challenging the 100DMA 0.8884, though the single currency is lower vs. the buck, with the pair tripping some stops at 1.1310. Obviously, 1.1300 is nearest support and if breached more stops are reported at 1.1290.
NZD,AUD– Notable, albeit marginal G10 outperformers vs. the buck, with the Kiwi staging another recovery following the weak data (trade overnight), and now looking ahead to the RBNZ semi-annual FSR tonight. NZD/USD hovering just below 0.6800 and AUD/USD near the middle of a 0.7270-15 band.
In commodities, brent (+0.2%) and WTI (Unch) are nursing initial losses as focus starts turning to the G20 summit over the weekend where markets may get initial hints of what to expect at the Dec 6th OPEC meeting in Vienna. The Saudi Crown Prince, Russian President and US President are to meet, possibly on the side-lines to decide the future of the global oil market. Talk around the market notes that Prince Mohammed Bin Salman may not able to defy US President Trump’s aim for lower oil prices after the White House stood behind the prince in regard to the killing of journalist Khashoggi. Nonetheless, traders will be watching the summit closely, while in the nearer-term, today will see the release of the weekly API where forecasts see headline crude stockpiles printing a drawdown of 0.6mln barrels. Gold is trading relatively flat as the dollar holds steady following comments from Trump that overnight that he still intends to raise Chinese import tariffs to 25%; these comments come ahead of this week’s G20 summit. Additionally, US-China trade pessimism has caused copper prices to fall for the 3rd consecutive session due to demand concerns. Iron ore futures have dropped to their lowest level in over 4 months, dropping by 5% over concerns that steel prices are to remain pressured by slower demand. Looking at the day ahead, we’ll get various house price data points including the September FHFA house price index reading, Q3 house price purchase index reading and September S&P CoreLogic house price data. On top of that we’ll get the November consumer confidence survey which is expected to slip nearly 2pts to 135.8 in light of the recent wobbles in the equity market. That is, however, in the context of the 18-year high that the index reached last month. Away from the data, there will be plenty of focus on Fed Vice-Chair Clarida’s speech in New York today at 8.30am ET, especially around the topics of how he characterizes recent volatility in markets and the prospects for domestic and global growth. Fellow Fed officials Bostic, Evans and George will also speak while the ECB’s Nouy, Costa and Mersch also speak at various stages. It’s worth also noting that starting today and continuing until Thursday, the three top candidates to take over from Merkel as head of the CDU will hold panel debates. US Event Calendar
9am: S&PCoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.2%, prior 0.09%; CS 20- City YoY NSA, est. 5.2%, prior 5.49%
8:30am: Fed Vice Chairman Clarida Speaks in New York
9am: S&PCoreLogic CS 20- City NSA Index, prior 213.7; CS US HPI NSA Index, prior 205.8
2:30pm: Fed’s Bostic, Evan and George Speak on Panel
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap We took our three year old Maisie to the building site that is our new house over the weekend and this may have been a mistake as over the last two days she keeps on asking us why our new house is broken. She was particularly upset that a lot of windows and walls were missing and said she doesn’t want to live there as it would be too cold. Meanwhile Daddy’s bank account feels broken this morning as there was talk yesterday that one of our big suppliers might be about to call in the administrators. They have a healthy deposit of ours so it’s very annoying. It’s fair to say that costs are escalating from all angles and the EMR may need to still be running from an old people’s home in 50 years time to fund this. From broken houses to slightly less broken markets. Given that the two Mondays prior to yesterday had seen moves of -1.66% and -1.97% for the S&P 500, yesterday reversed the trend as better news percolated through on some of the negative stories that have dominated of late. The S&P 500 closed last night +1.56% with the DOW and NASDAQ also up +1.46% and +2.06% respectively. The NYFANG index advanced +3.72%, despite Apple’s underperformance (initially down -1.18% before rebounding to close +1.35%) as the US Supreme Court signalled its willingness to hear a class action lawsuit over its app store pricing. Financials really led the way with the S&P Banks index rallying +2.30% for its best day since July. They had their European counterparts to thank for that, with the STOXX Banks index (+2.91%) seeing its best single day performance since July 2017. The broader STOXX 600 closed +1.23% and DAX +1.45%. Italy was the main catalyst as sentiment improved on the potential for more positive negotiations with the European Commission. As we reported yesterday, the weekend saw less confrontational remarks from Salvini and Juncker. In addition, Salvini said yesterday that the government is “not getting stuck” over the decimals in the deficit target while fellow Deputy Premier Di Maio confirmed that “if, as part of the negotiation, we need to reduce the forecast deficit slightly, that’s not important to us.” Di Maio went on to say that “the issue is not the conflict with the EU on a deficit of 2.4%, what’s important is that not even a single person is kept out of the core measures.” Prior to this, we also had headlines on Bloomberg suggesting that an official for the League had said that the Government was looking at a new deficit target of 2.2% to 2.3%. Late in the evening, political leaders Conte, Salvini, and Di Maio released a joint statement after their meeting, confirming their less confrontational tone and again deemphasising the decimal place of the deficit number. As we go to print headline are coming through from Italian finance minister Castelli that the deficit target is “almost certain” to be 2.2%. The question on everyone’s lips is what is the compromise number that the European Commission could realistically accept? A deficit in the 2.2% area is still unlikely to satisfy the EC, however a willingness to negotiate might be seen as the Italian government being aware of the implications of its actions. The Commission could even accept a somewhat vague framework as a rationale to defer a formal decision on Italy until into 2019, potentially alleviating some of the near-term event risk for Italy-linked assets. Before all this news the FTSE MIB closed yesterday up +2.77% while Italian Banks (+4.83%) had their best day since June. Two- and ten-year BTPs rallied -11.2bps and -13.8bps respectively – albeit off their yield lows for the session. Speaking of Italy, the ECB’s Peter Praet said yesterday that there has been very limited spill-over from a tightening of financial conditions in Italy to the broader Euro Area, but that conditions in Italy are “unsustainable” and “so something will have to give.” Praet’s general tone outside of this was constructive. His comments suggested that QE will finish in December as widely expected, but also that the ECB will have to clarify was it meant by “reinvesting for an extended period of time.” Praet also confirmed that guidance is “a very strong expectation” but also noted that “downside risks have increased noticeably.” This was notable as the Council has previously said that risks are “balanced.” Praet’s speech raised the anticipation levels for Draghi, who spoke in the afternoon. While his speech was virtually a copy and paste from his last on November 16th, he was later quoted as saying that “world growth momentum has slowed considerably” which is much stronger language compared to that used in the past. The December 13 ECB meeting will be key, and our economists still expect the Governing Council to announce the end of QE. Incoming data will dictate the evolution of policy, but we still expect growth and inflation to progress sufficiently to allow for an interest rate hike in September 2019. Praet and Draghi are scheduled to speak again this week, on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. We’ll also get several consequential communications from Federal Reserve officials, with speeches scheduled today for Vice Chair Clarida, tomorrow for Chair Powell, and Friday for NY Fed President Williams. The bottom line so far is that he doesn’t think there is sufficient evidence to ratify the market’s dovish interpretation of recent Fed communications, though that could change depending on what the Fed leadership says about the neutral rate, financial conditions, and global growth. So an important couple of speeches today and tomorrow from Clarida and Powell. This morning in Asia markets are largely higher with the Nikkei (+0.88%), Shanghai Comp (+0.42%) and Kospi (+0.84%) all up while the Hang Seng (+0.01%) is trading flat after erasing earlier losses. Sentiment seems to have been impacted by US President Trump’s rhetoric, after an interview with the WSJ, that he will likely push forward with plans to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. He also suggested that the US would likely impose tariffs on the remainder of Chinese imports ($267bn) if the trade talks on the sidelines of the G20 fail. So the pressure builds ahead of the summit. Futures on S&P 500 (-0.18%) are pointing towards a softer start. Back to yesterday, Bund yields edged up +2.1bps yesterday with the Italy news more important than any ECB slowdown worries. That move for BTPs and Bunds means the spread between the two yesterday was -15.9bps tighter and now at the tightest level in nearly three weeks. Meanwhile Treasury yields also backed up +2.0bps and are now sitting at 3.06%. Oil had a part to play in that with Brent and Crude bouncing +3.13% and +2.54% respectively – despite the news that Saudi Arabia had again raised its oil output – perhaps with hopes that the oversupply condition will be addressed at the G20 this week or the OPEC meeting next week. Tensions between Russia and the Ukraine over the weekend seemed to have less of an impact. Not hurting the decent day for equities yesterday was news of a merger in the Greek Banking sector, however a sub-index of Greek banks did give up an early morning surge of as much as +11.57% to finish flat. A pretty substantial move and retracement! In the US, the auto sector advanced +3.98% for its sixth best day of the year, after General Motors announced a broad new restructuring plan. It plans to cut over 14,000 jobs and close five North American manufacturing plants next year, barring an agreement with its unions. GM’s share price rose +4.79% to a four-month high. Elsewhere on Brexit, Donald Trump has suggested PM May's Brexit agreement could threaten a US-UK trade deal. He told reporters the withdrawal agreement "sounds like a great deal for the EU" and meant the UK might not be able to trade with the US. The PM’s office insisted the deal is "very clear" the UK would be able to sign trade deals with countries around the world. To the day ahead now, where this morning in Europe we’ll get November confidence indicators in France and Italy followed by the CBI’s retailing reported sales data in the UK for November. In the US this afternoon we’ll get various house price data points including the September FHFA house price index reading, Q3 house price purchase index reading and September S&P CoreLogic house price data. On top of that we’ll get the November consumer confidence survey which is expected to slip nearly 2pts to 135.8 in light of the recent wobbles in the equity market. That is, however, in the context of the 18-year high that the index reached last month. Away from the data, there will be plenty of focus on Fed Vice-Chair Clarida’s speech in New York today at 1.30pm GMT, especially around the topics of how he characterizes recent volatility in markets and the prospects for domestic and global growth. Fellow Fed officials Bostic, Evans and George will also speak this evening at 7.30pm GMT while the ECB’s Nouy, Costa and Mersch also speak at various stages. It’s worth also noting that starting today and continuing until Thursday, the three top candidates to take over from Merkel as head of the CDU will hold panel debates.
"A Sea Of Red": Global Stocks Plunge With Tech Shares In Freefall
While there was some nuance in yesterday's pre-open trading, with Asia at least putting up a valiant defense to what would soon become another US rout, this morning the market theme is far simpler: a global sea of red. Stocks fell across the globe as worries over softening demand for the iPhone prompted a tech stock selloff across the world, while the arrest of car boss Carlos Ghosn pulled Nissan and Renault sharply lower. Even China's recent rally fizzled and the Shanghai composite closed down 2.1% near session lows, signalling that the global slump led by tech shares would deepen Tuesday, adding a new layer of pessimism to markets already anxious over trade. Treasuries advanced and the dollar edged higher. S&P 500 futures traded near session lows, down 0.6% and tracking a fall in European and Asian shares after renewed weakness in the tech sector pushed Nasdaq futures sharply lower for a second day after Monday's 3% plunge and crippled any hopes for dip buying. News around Apple triggered the latest bout of stock market selling, after the Wall Street Journal reported the consumer tech giant is cutting production for its new iPhones. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index dropped a fifth day as its technology sector fell 1.3% to the lowest level since February 2017, taking the decline from mid-June peak to 21% and entering a bear market. Not surprisingly, the tech sector was the worst performer on the European benchmark on Tuesday, following Apple’s decline to near bear-market territory and U.S. tech stocks plunge during recent sell-off. The selloff was compounded by an auto sector drop led by Nissan and Renault after Ghosn, chairman of both carmakers, was arrested in Japan for alleged financial misconduct. The European auto sector was not far behind, dropping 1.6 percent, and the broad European STOXX 600 index was down 0.9 percent to a four-week low. “Most of Europe had a red session yesterday and that has been compounded by the news on Apple and tech stocks overnight, The overall climate is risk off,” said Investec economist Philip Shaw. “Beyond stocks, the Italian bonds spread (over German bonds) is at its widest in about a month now, and Brexit continues to rumble on - uncertainty is very much hurting risk sentiment,” he added. Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.2 percent, with Samsung Electronics falling 2 percent. In Japan, Sony Corp shed 3.1 percent. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 1.1 percent, with shares of Nissan Motor Co tumbling more than 5% after Ghosn’s arrest and on news he will be fired from the board this week. Meanwhile, as noted yesterday, the CDS index of US investment grade issuers blew out to the widest level since the Trump election, signaling renewed nerves about the asset class. Exactly two months after the S&P hit all time highs, stocks have been caught in a vicious decline and continue to struggle for support as some of the technology companies that helped drive the S&P 500 to a record high earlier this year tumbled amid a slowdown in consumer sales and fears over regulation, many of them entering a bear market. At the same time, a more gloomy macro outlook is emerging, with Goldman chief equity strategist David kostin overnight recommending investors hold more cash even as it reiterated its base case of S&P 3000 in 2019. Ray Dalio disagreed, and said that investors should expect low returns for a long time after enjoying years of low interest rates from central-bank stimulus. “The easy days of long, global bull markets where you can invest in a tracker for five basis points -- I say this as an active fund manager -- and watch the thing go up, I think those days are gone,” Gerry Grimstone, chairman of Barclays Bank PLC and Standard Life Aberdeen PLC, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “It’s going to be a move back to value investing, and back to the Warren Buffett-style of investment.” In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May is reportedly drawing up secret plans to drop the Irish border backstop and win support from angry Brexiteers, while reports added PM May has received agreement from the EU to drop the backstop plan if both sides can agree on alternative arrangements to keep the border open. Meanwhile, Brexiteers reportedly still lack the sufficient number of signatures required to trigger a no-confidence vote against UK PM May, the FT reported. In related news, Brexit rebels reportedly admitted attempts to oust PM May has stalled as Eurosceptic MPs turned on each other. The Telegraph also reported that the confidence vote now appears to be on hold until after Parliament votes in December on Mrs May's Brexit deal. Sky News reported that the UK government are to publish new analysis before the MPs’ meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Agreement comparing the “costs and benefits” of Brexit. The impact of three scenarios will be measured; no Brexit, no deal, and leaving with the government's draft deal and a free trade agreement. In rates, Treasuries rose, driving the 10-year yield down to its lowest level since late September, ahead of Thanksgiving Thursday. Italian government bond yields jumped to one-month high on Tuesday and Italian banking stocks dropped to a two-year low, hurt by risk aversion and concerns over the Italian budget. Euro zone money markets no longer fully price in even a 10 bps rate rise from the European Central Bank in 2019, indicating growing investor concern about the economic outlook in the currency bloc. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index whipsawed in early London trading even as it stayed near a more than one-week low on concern cooling global growth will slow the pace of Fed rate hikes, keeping Treasury yields under pressure. At the same time, the pound stabilized as Theresa May appealed to business leaders to help deliver her Brexit deal, and evidence mounted that a plot to oust her as U.K. Prime Minister is faltering. The euro slid as Italian bonds dropped, pushing the yield spread to Germany to the widest in a month; the currency had opened the London session higher, supported by corporate buying in EUGBP. The yen rallied to a month-to-date high as Asian stocks followed a U.S. equity slide while the New Zealand dollar got a boost from a jump in milk production; the Aussie was on the back foot even after the RBA said Australia’s unemployment rate could fall further in the near term. India’s rupee rallied a sixth day after the central bank signaled a compromise with the government in their dispute over reserves. Bitcoin extended its drop below $4,500 for the first time since October 2017. WTI crude oil futures hovered around $57 a barrel after oil prices lost steam as fears about slower global demand and a surge in U.S. production outweighed expected supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Brent crude slipped 0.9 percent to $66.21 per barrel. In other overnight news, BoJ Governor Kuroda said there is currently no need to ease further, while he added that there was a need for bold monetary policy in 2013 and now we need to persistently continue with policy. Furthermore, Kuroda suggested that the chance of reaching the 2% inflation target during FY2020 is low. Japanese PM Abe says the next initial budget is to have measures to address sales tax. India's Finance Ministry sources expect that the RBI will stand pat on rates at its meeting next month. RBA Governor Lowe states that steady policy is to be maintained for 'a while yet' and it is likely that rates will increase at some point if the economy progresses as expected. Expected data include housing starts and building permits. Best Buy, Campbell Soup, Lowe’s, Medtronic, Target, TJX, and Gap are among companies reporting earnings. Market Snapshot
S&P500 futures down 0.8% to 2,676.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 353.25
MXAP down 1% to 150.89
MXAPJ down 1.2% to 481.70
Nikkei down 1.1% to 21,583.12
Topix down 0.7% to 1,625.67
Hang Seng Index down 2% to 25,840.34
Shanghai Composite down 2.1% to 2,645.85
Sensex down 0.8% to 35,498.94
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 5,671.79
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,082.58
German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.359%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.1433
Italian 10Y yield rose 10.4 bps to 3.223%
Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 1.653%
Brent futures down 0.8% to $66.23/bbl
Gold spot little changed at $1,223.14
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.29
Top Overnight News
Bank of England governor Carney appears before lawmakers on Tuesday. He’ll be joined by fellow interest-rate setters Jon Cunliffe, Andy Haldane and Michael Saunders. Treasury Committee Chair Nicky Morgan has already asked the BOE to assess any agreement
While Salvini is threatening to hijack the EU agenda as the dispute over Italy’s 2019 budget heats up, his closest adviser is trying to steer the populist coalition away from a head-on clash with Brussels, according to senior government and League officials who asked not to be named discussing confidential matters
Credit markets are set for the worst year since the global financial crisis as investors abandon hope of a late-2018 rally
Turmoil engulfed cryptocurrency markets again on Tuesday, with every major coin extending a rout that’s rocking confidence in the nascent asset class. Bitcoin, which started the year at more than $14,000, has fallen below $4,500. Rivals including Ether, Litecoin and XRP joined the slide, though they pared losses that reached as much as 17 percent
Evidence is mounting that the plot to oust U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is faltering. One rebel leader said in private that more than 50 Tories had claimed they would submit letter but they hadn’t all followed through
Germany and France have warned the EU to do more to prevent the U.K. from being able to claim victory in Brexit talks, according to EU diplomats. Spain’s Foreign Minister said the EU shouldn’t accept a text on a Brexit agreement that Spain isn’t happy with
U.K. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said he wants to keep a second Brexit referendum open as an option
Australia’s unemployment rate may fall further in the near term based on leading indicators of labor demand, the central bank said in minutes of its November meeting
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda says he welcomes a diversity of opinion on the effectiveness of negative rates. He also said he believes continuing current policy is best approach for achieving the central bank’s inflation target
Asian stock markets were lower across the board as the risk averse tone rolled over from Wall St, where the tech sector led the sell-off as Apple shares dropped nearly 4% on reports it had reduced production orders and with all FAANG stocks now in bear market territory. As such, the tech sector underperformed in the ASX 200 (-0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) was also pressured with Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan among the worst hit after their Chairman Ghosn was arrested on financial misconduct allegations. Shanghai Comp. (-2.1%) and Hang Seng (-2.0%) were heavily pressured after the PBoC continued to snub liquidity operations and as China’s blue-chip tech names conformed to the global rout in the sector, while JD.com earnings added to the glum as China’s 2nd largest e-commerce firm posted its weakest revenue growth since turning public. Finally, 10yr JGBs were weaker amid profit taking after futures recently hit their highest in around a year and following mixed results at today’s 20yr auction. Top Asian News - BlackRock Doesn’t Expect Significant Growth Slowdown in China - China Stocks Lead Global Losses as Tech Rout Hits Fragile Market - Stock Traders in Asia Keep Finding New Reasons to Hit ’Sell’ - World’s Largest Ikea to Open in Manila as Company Bets on Asia Major European indices are largely in the red, with the SMI outperforming (+0.1%) which is being bolstered by Novartis (+1.0%) following their announcement of a joint digital treatment with Pear Therapeutics for substance abuse disorder. The DAX (-0.7%) is lagging its peers, weighed on by Wirecard (-5.0%) following a disappointing change to guidance forecasting as well as weak sentiment across IT names after the FAANG stocks entered bear market territory on Wall St. In particular, the Stoxx 600 Technology sector (-1.9%), dropped to its lowest level since Feb 2017. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank (-2.5%) are in the red due to reports that the Co processed payments for Danske Bank in Estonia. Top European News
Draghi’s Man in Rome Shows Populists Alert to Budget Backlash
BASF Targets $2.3 Billion Profit Boost From Corporate Revamp
Danske Fights Back as Hush Money Claims Raise New Questions
The One Thing Supercharging Europe Earnings in 2018 Is Crashing
As Things Stand, Spain Will Vote Against Brexit Deal: Sanchez
In FX, the DXY index remains technically prone to further downside pressure having closed below another Fib support level yesterday and testing the next bearish chart area around 96.050-10 ahead of 96.000 even. However, a more concerted bout of risk-off trade/positioning saved the DXY and broad Dollar from steeper declines as the tech-induced sell-off in stocks intensified, and jitters over Brexit alongside the Italian budget returned to the fore. NZD/AUD - The Kiwi is bucking the overall trend and outperforming in contrast to this time on Monday, with Nzd/Usd rebounding firmly to 0.6850+ levels and Aud/Nzd retreating through 1.0650 to just south of 1.0600 following overnight data showing a hefty 6.5% y/y rise in NZ milk collections for October. Conversely, the Aud/Usd has slipped back under 0.7300 again, and close to 0.7250 in wake of RBA minutes underscoring no rush to hike rates and subsequent affirmation of wait-and-see guidance from Governor Lowe. In fact, he asserts that the jobless rate could decline to 4.5% vs 5% at present without inducing wage inflation, while also underlining concerns about the supply of credit. JPY/CHF - Both benefiting from their more intrinsic allure during periods of pronounced risk aversion and investor angst, as Usd/Jpy probes a bit deeper below 112.50 and a key Fib at 112.46 that could be pivotal on a closing basis with potential to expose daily chart support circa 112.16 ahead of 112.00. Meanwhile, the Franc has inched closer to 0.9900 and over 1.1350 vs the Eur that remains burdened with the aforementioned Italian fiscal concerns. GBP/EUR - Almost a case of déjà vu for Sterling and the single currency as early attempts to the upside vs the Greenback saw Cable and EuUsd revisit recent peaks around 1.2880 and 1.1470 respectively, but a combination of chart resistance and bearish fundamentals forced both back down to circa 1.2825 and 1.1425. In terms of precise technical/psychological levels, 1.2897 and 1.1445 represent Fib retracements, ahead of 1.2900 and 1.1500, while the Pound has remained relatively unchanged and unresponsive to largely on the fence pending Brexit rhetoric from the BoE in testimony to the TSC on November’s QIR. In commodities, gold has stayed within a USD 5/oz range and traded relatively flat throughout the session moving with the steady dollar ahead of US Thanksgiving. Similarly, copper traded lacklustre breaking a 5-day rally because of a subdued risk sentiment stemming from ongoing US-China trade tensions; with Shanghai rebar adversely affected from these factors. Brent (-0.1%) and WTI (+0.2%) are following a relatively quiet overnight session, while recent upticks in the complex resulted in WTI reclaiming the USD 57/bbl and Brent edging closer to USD 67/bbl. This follows comments from IEA Chief Birol that Iranian oil exports declined by almost 1mln BPD from summer peaks. Looking ahead, traders will be keeping the weekly API crude inventory data which is expected to print a build of 8.79mln barrels. On today's light data calendar, in the US, there should be some interest in the October housing starts and building permits data, especially following Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments acknowledging a slowdown in the housing market and yesterday’s homebuilder data. Away from that, the BoE’s Carney is due to appear before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee to discuss the Inflation Report, while the ECB’s Nouy and Bundesbank’s Weidmann are both scheduled to speak at separate events. US Event Calendar
8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.23m, prior 1.2m; MoM, est. 1.79%, prior -5.3%
8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.26m, prior 1.24m; MoM, est. -0.79%, prior -0.6%
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap With the sell-off of the last 24 hours we have now traded through the last of our YE 2018 top level credit spread forecasts as US HY widened 6bps to +424bps (YE 2018 forecast was 420). We still think US HY is the most expensive part of the EUR & US credit universe but as discussed above, last night we’ve become more optimistic on all credit in the near-term after what has been the worst week of the year. Credit massively under-performed equities last week but equities caught up on the downside yesterday. The sell-off was underpinned by the FANG names selling off, an accounting scandal emerging at Nissan, oil swinging around and the US housing market spooked by weak data. Just on the market moves first, the NASDAQ and NYFANG indexes slumped -3.03% and -4.28% yesterday, registering their fourth and third worst days of the year, respectively. Facebook and Apple fell -5.72% and -3.96% respectively, as the sector remains pressured amid a slew of negative PR and the spectre of stricter government regulation. Over the weekend, Apple CEO Tim Cook said in an interview that “the free market is not working” and that new regulation is “inevitable”. This negatively impacted highly-valued social media companies. Twitter and Snapchat traded down -5.02% and -6.78% respectively. The tech sector was further pressured after the WSJ reported that Apple had cut production orders in recent weeks for the new model iPhones, with chipmakers broadly trading lower and Philadelphia semiconductor index shedding -3.86%. The S&P 500 and DOW also slumped -1.66% and -1.56% respectively while in Europe the STOXX 600 turned an early gain of +0.71% into a loss of -0.73%. In credit, cash markets were 2bps and 11bps wider for Euro IG and HY and 2bps and 6bps in the US. CDX IG and HY were, however, 3bps and 11bps wider, respectively. Elsewhere, WTI oil first tested breaking through $55/bbl yesterday, after Russia stopped short of committing to supply cuts, before recovering to close +0.52% at $56.76. Bond markets were relatively quiet, with Treasuries and Bunds ending -0.4bps and +0.6bps, respectively, albeit masking bigger intraday moves. BTP yields rose +10.6bps to 3.597%, within 10 basis points of their recent closing peak, as rhetoric between Italian officials and their European peers continued to intensify. Finance Ministers from Austria and the Netherlands separately spoke publicly about their concerns, and expressed their hope that the European Commission will loyally enforce the fiscal rules. Italian Finance Minister Tria tried to calm conditions by framing the disagreement as relatively minor, though he also accused the Commission of being biased against expansionary policies, which he argued are needed to avert a macro slowdown. Back to credit, as we highlighted yesterday, the recent weakness in the asset class has become a talking point for broader markets and while our view is now that value is starting to emerge, there are an increasing number of idiosyncratic stories plaguing the market. There were a couple more examples yesterday with the aforementioned story about Nissan removing its chairman after being arrested for violations of financial law. This caused Renault’s CDS to widen +25.0bps (equity down -8.43%), while Vallourec bonds dropped 15pts after falling 11pts on Friday as concerns mount about the company’s rising leverage in the wake of recent results. Like we’ve see in equity markets, it does feel like credits are now getting punished with sharp moves in the wake of negative headlines Certainly something to watch, but as we said above, credit is now much more attractively priced than it has been for some time. From steel tubing to Downing Street, where we’ve actually had a rare temporary lull for Brexit headlines over the last 24 hours, although behind the scenes it does look we’re getting closer to the threshold for a confidence vote in PM May with the Times yesterday reporting that “senior Brexiteers” had told reporters that they had “firm pledges” from over 50 MPs to submit letters. As a reminder, 48 are needed to trigger the process. Looking further out, yesterday DB’s Oliver Harvey published a report arguing that there is still a path towards an orderly Brexit based on the existing Withdrawal Agreement should May survive a confidence vote. This path is provided by the political declaration on the future economic relationship. The latter has yet to be negotiated, and as the EU27 and UK recognise in the joint statement, the existing temporary customs arrangement (TCA) already provides a basis for a future economic relationship. Oli argues that the UK should push for the political declaration on the future relationship to explicitly commit the UK to a form of Brexit that might be described as “Norway plus.” The temporary customs arrangement would become permanent, but under the governance framework of UK membership of the EEA and EFT. The UK should tie the political declaration on the future relationship to the good faith clause in the existing Withdrawal Agreement, meaning that if negotiations were not pursued on these lines after the transition period had begun, the UK could withhold payments from the EU27. This would help to allay concerns from across the political divide that the UK would be “trapped” in a sub optimal customs union with the EU27. Meanwhile, to complicate matters, Bloomberg has reported that the EU is mulling over issuing a series of separate statements on Brexit on Sunday, in addition to the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration. This comes after pressure from some EU countries not to appease any additional UK demands. Elsewhere, the SUN has reported that the PM May has drawn up a secret plan to scrap the Irish backstop arrangement in an attempt to win over angry Tory Brexiteers after a meeting with them yesterday. However, if a mutually agreeable solution couldn’t be found over the last couple of years, it seems tough to imagine one was finally found yesterday afternoon. We’ll see. Further adding to the complexity of where Brexit heads, last night the DUP abstained on the UK finance bill, which implements the budget. This stops short of their prior threat to actively vote against the legislation, but is still a surprise and signals that further political turbulence between PM May and the DUP is likely. The bill only just scraped through. Sterling finished +0.14% yesterday and this morning is trading flattish (+0.02%) in early trade. Sentiment more broadly in Asia is following Wall Street’s lead with almost all markets trading in a sea of red. The Nikkei (-1.25%, with Nissan Motors down as much as -5.41% and Mitsubishi Motors -6.71%), Hang Seng (-1.84%), Shanghai Comp (-1.63%) and Kospi (-0.96%) are all down along with most other markets. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.29%) are extending losses as we type. Back to yesterday, where as we mentioned at the top, weak US homebuilder sentiment survey data played its part in the moves for markets. The November NAHB housing market index tumbled to 60 from 68 in October after expectations had been for just a 1pt drop. That’s the lowest reading since August 2016 and biggest one-month drop since February 2014. The details weren’t much better and falls into line with the expectation of a softer outlook for housing. As you’ll see in the day ahead we’ve got more housing data in the US today so worth keeping an eye on even if the October data for starts could be distorted by Hurricane Michael. As far as the day ahead is concerned, we’re fairly light on data today with Q3 employment stats in France, October PPI in Germany and November CBI total orders data in the UK the only releases of note. In the US, there should be some interest in the October housing starts and building permits data, especially following Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments acknowledging a slowdown in the housing market and yesterday’s homebuilder data. Away from that, the BoE’s Carney is due to appear before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee to discuss the Inflation Report, while the ECB’s Nouy and Bundesbank’s Weidmann are both scheduled to speak at separate events.
Why the New Zealand government should sanction the creation of a national NZ blockchain dollar to run in tandem with the NZ fiat dollar.
White paper April 29, 2017 The problem: No country today has a national currency built on the new digital-cryptographic-blockchain. This innovative architecture is a prerequisite to engaging with blockchain economic activity which is nascent but burgeoning at the present time. Blockchain technology, among other things, allows a currency to expand its capabilities beyond what we currently understand a currency to be i.e. a mechanism to transfer intrinsic value. Fiat-based currencies are the incumbent format. Although fiat is now mostly digitised, its architecture is not cryptographic by design, thus rendering it largely unusable within these new emerging economies. The native state of a cryptographic blockchain currency is in cryptographic digital format; it does not have a physical equivalent as fiat does. This white paper is an overview explaining why this currency is different, why it is needed and how to implement it. Preamble: There is growing recognition within the fintech (financial technology) community that emerging cryptographic blockchain currencies will be a major disruptive technology. They can be permissioned or permissionless. Permissionless means they can be created and used without-permission or restriction and they do not recognise borders. They are freely available to any citizen from any country. They’re normally publicly issued with a fixed supply and/or with a predictable inflation rate. No bank or government will have had a hand in issuing them; nor do they control them. Paradoxically permissionless currencies hold real value, albeit unofficially. A permissioned currency is normally issued and controlled by a government or bank and used by that nation for economic activity. All fiat currencies are permissioned currencies. Currently there is no permissioned cryptographic blockchain currency issued by any government anywhere in the world. One of the purposes of this paper is to position blockchain cryptographic currencies as the next logical step in the evolution of money. Blockchain cryptographic currencies, in the broader sense i.e. permissioned or permissionless is a nascent yet powerful new technology which very few people are yet aware of. With a permissionless blockchain currency, any person, group or company can now create their own digitally secure currency-type token to transfer value within and across borders. One of the advantages of cryptographic architecture is that it offers unbreakable anti-counterfeiting security along with the ability to firmly fix the monetary supply. This means no individual or government has the ability to arbitrarily tamper with it. It can be changed only through consensus by the majority of its users. This is in contrast to the current permissioned fiat system where additional money creation can and is arbitrarily created by less than one tenth of one percent of its users i.e. the banking industry and government regulators. The vast majority of users within the fiat system have been indirectly shut out of the process that determines when and how much additional money should be created. Monetary creation more recently renamed quantitative easing has the effect of directly devaluing all currency in circulation and all savings held by individuals. There is a growing concern for the health of the world’s financial system due to high levels of unprecedented quantitative easing taking place throughout the world today. This has exacerbated an era of protracted low interest rates and historic high levels of debt. In the West, the poor and middle-classes are bearing the brunt of the effects of quantitative easing. Interest rates paid on savings or earnings held in bank accounts are at historical lows, and in real terms are returning negative capital growth. Savers and earners are experiencing the devaluation effect as their money purchases less and less of fundamental asset and service necessities like housing, education and health. For this group of citizens, this reality will become a very powerful incentive to move surplus earnings or savings away from a highly devaluing fiat system and into a permissionless blockchain currency that offers a fixed, stable monetary supply. What exactly is a blockchain currency? Broadly speaking, the architecture of a blockchain currency is based on digital cryptography. This makes it secure when transferring over the internet. Digital fiat architecture is not cryptographic, making it unsecure to use over the internet. Digital blockchain currencies have an important commonality with physical fiat cash. When I take a physical $20 note out of my physical wallet or a digitised $20 blockchain currency out of my digital wallet, and transfer it to you, both our wallet balances are updated immediately without an intermediary being involved i.e. no bank. In both cases your balance rises by $20 and mine declines by $20. This type of simple person-to-person value-transfer and simultaneous balance-update with physical fiat currency or digital blockchain currency is impossible with digital fiat currency. Digital fiat must have a bank to act as intermediary between us. It is the bank that actually makes the transfer between us and it is the bank that updates each of our bank balances (usually overnight). So as to remove all doubt, a physical fiat currency and a digital blockchain currency do not require a bank to act as intermediary when transferring to someone else. This is a powerful, yet unobvious concept to grasp. The ramifications of this statement of fact is far reaching, yet little understood by the average person. The problem with fiat: Fiat currency has a quasi-symbiotic relationship around ownership and control, shared between a government and banks. It is a marriage of convenience rather than one of choice. Regulation and oversight is supposed to be controlled by government, but in this marriage, an unhealthy imbalance has grown over time that has put the banking industry in a much stronger position as to how money is created and controlled. This imbalance in power has come into existence as a result of new levels of modern debt issuance. Most developed and all undeveloped countries are in some measure deeply indebted to the banking industry, whether the debt be government or private. Total worldwide debt levels are now so high it is unlikely to ever be repaid. When you owe a bank a lot of money they have much more control over how things should be run. Physical fiat was digitised with the invention of the computer and before the invention of the internet. Digitised fiat consists of two parts the digital currency itself, and the digital infrastructure used to move it around. Before the internet, the banking institution created this digital system to enable their users (every bank account holder) to transfer value between each other. It’s a proprietary closed system (in other words it does not use or currently need the internet). There are no competitors and every user must have a bank account. We all have no option but to use this system. Lack of competition has allowed it to become antiquated, with very little innovation to improve its overall functionality. It is expensive to keep it going, and without genuine competition, price gouging is suspected on the fees charged to users for just about every aspect of its use. The fiat system is also filled with friction. For example, it’s slow and very expensive to perform international remittances. There are fees to convert the currency and then more fees to send that currency on. It can take anything from 3-5 business days to receive an international payment. Payment-associated transactions like credit cards and PayPal also attract expensive fees. A state change is upon us: The blockchain currency has arisen with the ubiquitous penetration of the internet and its ownerless yet persistent state (always on). The internet has grown and emerged as the predominant superhighway to transfer all types of digital information. Physical postal-service mail was the first major industry that was disrupted by this new superhighway due to the invention of email. Today, most legacy infrastructure that supports telephony, radio, movies and television has been disrupted to some degree. These industries are shifting ever larger parts of their data transmission over to the internet because an ever-growing number of their users are using the internet as the preferred portal to access their digital data requirements. Private siloed and permissioned legacy infrastructures are in rapid decline. With the invention of the blockchain, transfer-of-value directly over the internet is now possible. The banking industry’s siloed fiat system is perhaps the last and most important private legacy infrastructure to be disrupted by the internet. With the blockchain, being willing to incur a “cross-border payment” while suffering up to a 5-day wait becomes as unthinkable as sending a “cross-border email” that is expected to take 5 days to arrive. Blockchain currency conversions are relatively frictionless and virtually instantaneous (less than 1 hour in most cases), and transactions fees (if any) are also considerably lower. Paying an expensive fee to send your blockchain payment locally or internationally makes about as much sense as paying a fee to your internet provider to send an email locally or internationally. The internet has thoroughly penetrated the fabric of modern society for all things digital, one of the most notable being ecommerce. From around 1995 the demand from users to participate in commerce via the internet grew exponentially, and this in turned forced the banking industry to bring their private siloed system closer to the new superhighway in an effort to meet its users’ ever-growing demands for digital convenience via the internet. This has now expanded to include online banking and payment systems (Visa/MasterCard). However, it is important to note the fiat banking system plugs into or sits on top of the internet. It is still separate and is unable to integrate in a safe and secure way with the internet the way a blockchain currency does. So today the fiat system has a competitor that has the potential to genuinely disrupt its singular monopoly. Blockchain technology has become a game-changer. We are no longer forced to use only government/banker-issued fiat currency to store value; nor are we forced to use the banking system to transfer it. We can now store our value in a public decentralised currency (a blockchain currency) and use a public decentralised system (the internet) to transfer it to others. The current state of blockchain currencies: Cryptographic blockchain currencies are at a very nascent stage. They are not a separate technology to the internet, but rather a major enhancement or upgrade to the internet’s ongoing evolution. Cryptographic blockchain currencies therefore inherit the genetic or core fundamentals of the internet right down to the protocol level. Arguably, the most important of these attributes is the decentralised state of the internet. The internet is the rails that a blockchain currency is transferred around on. It is not owned by the banks or controlled by a government. This means high fees are unlikely to be ever charged since a “level playing field” or a “neutral worldwide rails system” is now in place. This is a similar state of affairs to when Skype was created. International phone calls through Skype suddenly became very cheap or free. As a direct result, toll call charges from incumbent Telcos plummeted all around the world. The Telcos’ siloed telephone system faced extinction. They had to lower prices to compete with services being offered by the likes of Skype to stay in business. And it was the ownerless state of the internet as the underlying rail system that brought this about. There are only permissionless (non-government/bank) blockchain currencies in existence today. The first permissionless blockchain currency was Bitcoin, created in 2009. It was a technological experiment that has been highly successful and has proved that currency movements over the internet can be safely and securely performed without a banking system. It comes with a fixed money supply of 21 million coins, and it’s the resultant scarcity this creates that makes it extremely valuable. One bitcoin at time of writing is worth around $1300 USD. No government, dictatorship or banking institution was involved in its creation or deployment. Its value is autonomous and is derived solely from what its users believe it is worth. There are now over 500 permissionless blockchain currencies available today. Permissionless currencies are only one (and the first) product that a blockchain can be used for. They can also be used in other new and innovative ways not possible with fiat. Micro payments, escrow, and multi-signature transactions are some examples where blockchain currencies are far superior. In addition, there are other functionalities not specific to finance that are possible using blockchains and which are much more secure and unforgeable, such as proof of identity (like a passport), ownership transference (like vehicles and homes), and democratic voting systems. Hundreds of non-currency blockchain products are being worked on now and many thousands more are likely in the future. However these developments are outside the scope of this paper. Why a government should support this technological innovation: Blockchain products and new economic communities are under development. They can be accessed or used only via a blockchain cryptographic currency. Currently there is no permissioned or government-created one. Electronic fiat is unusable within these environments because its architecture is not cryptographic. It must be converted to a currency that is cryptographic before its intrinsic value can be utilised. On this basis alone, a risk for government is the economic exclusion of fiat in these new economies. Users will be forced to sidestep the fiat system for no other reason than these new economies can only function or be used with a currency that has cryptography built into its design i.e. a blockchain currency. To ensure a country’s national currency remains relevant to these emerging new economies, its currency must be made available in a blockchain format. In the near future, it is this author’s view that most countries will need to convert at least part of their fiat currency over to a blockchain architecture. This means two different architectures for the same currency for example, NZ dollar fiat and NZ dollar blockchain. It is simply a matter of when a government recognises that electronic value-transference will be moved (in part or wholly) to the internet, thus breaking away from the current banking industry’s siloed fiat system. It also means the beginnings of the disintermediation of banks since blockchain currencies do not require them. A tough reality that the banking institutions are currently grappling with. Bitcoin has proven that creating or digitising a currency (or digitising a value asset) to store value is no longer the privileged purview of banking consortiums or even governments. Permissioned systems based on fiat is not the future. Total domination of currency creation and value transference by the banking industry and governments is ending. Why this technological innovation will grow with or without government sanction: Once the blockchain becomes the accepted standardised architecture for currencies, some governments and banks will be unable to surreptitiously devalue their currency without serious repercussions from its users because those users can easily abandon it as a store of value. This in effect is what we have now, albeit nascent. Citizens who live in economies like Brazil, India and Greece are now storing a growing percentage of their savings in non-government-created cryptographic currencies in the knowledge that it’s secure (it cannot be arbitrarily confiscated and access cannot be shut down), it will maintain its value much better than the official fiat currency, 24-hour access is guaranteed via their mobile phones, and it can be moved to any location in the world that has internet access. Their wealth will easily follow them wherever they go. Being a refugee will no longer necessarily mean you have no access to your savings irrespective of the country that takes them in. Blockchain currencies will enable users to exchange and hold their savings in many different currencies (permissioned or permissionless) with very little friction. Sending and simultaneously switching one type of currency to another will be as seamless as sending an email from an Apple Mac, Android phone, Windows PC etc. to any other device anywhere in the world. This new technology – as was the case for the internet in the early days – will be largely ignored by everyone until suddenly we all find ourselves using and relying on it in our daily lives. The architecture of a solution: In the future, it is likely that a mix of fiat and blockchain currencies will coexist for a time. Governments and the banking industry will create and control the official fiat and the official permissioned blockchain national currency, while permissionless blockchain currencies (or currency-like tokens) will be created by various members of the public (worldwide) to achieve or enhance their specific economic goals. There are blockchain solutions suitable for permissioned government-issued cryptographic currencies. These solutions will enable governments to safely move or exchange at least some portion of their fiat currency over to a blockchain architecture to enable its constituents to use blockchain products and participate in blockchain economies which would be impossible with fiat currencies. A government can issue a regulated permissioned currency with all of the architectural advantages of a cryptographic blockchain. There is no requirement for it to be decentralised as is the state with a permissionless blockchain currency. Deciding what features and safeguards a permissioned cryptographic currency should have embedded into its protocol is the more relevant question. Several first-world central banks have been experimenting with a form of blockchain currency using distributed ledger technology (DLT) for example Canada, Britain and Japan. However they have restricted that usage largely to streamlining interbank financial activities. As important as this is, there should also be a focus to cater directly to end users who want to actively engage in localised economic blockchain activity within the real economy (non-financial). Governments should lead the way and be the conduit to lay down the initial infrastructure for their citizens. This proposal focuses on first-step distribution being offered directly to the public. The distribution, in all probability, will be taken up via “software developers”, who will require a cryptographic currency to deliver cryptographic blockchain solutions. Such solutions would promise better efficiency within current business models which rely on a high degree of human intervention (for example international money transmittance). These solutions will also drive out friction in antiquated legacy systems and create new forms of value transference not yet thought of. This would enable a meaningful assessment of real-world demand and also allow innovation to be driven directly by the needs of users. Currently, software developers are forced to use permissionless cryptographic tokens/currencies to deliver these products. There would be no need for this if a permissioned government blockchain currency was available. Any cursory investigation by world governments will confirm the burgeoning wall-to-wall projects underway in this sector. Literally billions of dollars are being invested into this ecosystem. None of these dollars are going into a government-permissioned cryptographic currency. A controlled and measurable pathway is required to apply a blockchain architecture to the national currency. It needs to be done with the buy-in of key stakeholders namely, the government, the banking industry and individual citizens. This paper provides a starting point as a way forward for the adoption of a cryptographic currency as the correct or better mode of transport to transfer value. Simply put, an orderly and safe process is needed to introduce a government-issued and controlled cryptographic currency. It would operate in parallel with the fiat system. The key is to implement it with demonstrable incentives to accommodate the key stakeholders. The process would also need to demonstrate low or negligible instability risk to the current financial system. Specifically a modified CAB (centralised autonomous blockchain) would be created. The proposal: For the purposes of this proposal I would suggest a country like New Zealand (of which I am a national) would be good candidate. It is a small, first-world economy with a sound and relatively open financial system and would be well suited for such an experiment. The government, in effect, owns one bank called KiwiBank. In partnership with this central bank the foundation for this proposal is already in place. The central bank of New Zealand could create a limited quantity of cryptographic currency that would be available for use in parallel with the national fiat currency. Kiwibank would control the initial release of this new currency into the system. This would insure KYC (know your customer) legal requirements and AML (anti money laundering) regulations are met. Kiwibank would in effect provide the on/off ramp into and out of the NZ cryptographic dollar from the NZ fiat dollar. Since there is no physical note or coin for the new cryptographic currency, converting fiat to cryptographic would be digital only via Kiwibank customers. Customers of Kiwibank would convert monies from their digital fiat bank account and transfer it to a smart-phone digital wallet, using an APP (via Google’s ‘Play Store’). An internal ledger would be created and maintained by Kiwibank for auditing purposes. The government would then know with whom and when the coins were converted. A Federated Server (or servers) owned and controlled by key stakeholders would be responsible for running the blockchain ledger. The coin would be a New Zealand digital cryptographic dollar (NZCD) and would carry the same value and rights as a New Zealand digital fiat dollar (NZD), backed by the full faith and credit of the New Zealand government). The initial users who convert their fiat to cryptographic would most probably be software code developers who want to create new blockchain applications for blockchain economies that are accessible only with a cryptographic currency. They would convert their current digital fiat dollars for digital cryptographic dollars. When a new-use application, solution or asset is created, the wider community would then need to convert their fiat dollars for cryptographic dollars to use the new application and participate in the new economy created. Security and Control: Strong controls can be built into a government-permissioned blockchain currency, together with highly transparent visibility. Regulatory compliance rules could be built in if required, for example: • Freezing the contents of any funds held in any wallet due to criminal activity. • Automated deduction of any funds held in any wallet i.e. outstanding fines (currently forced on employers to collect). • Automatic freezing or confiscation of any funds used on any blacklisted markets. • Automatic recall of funds transferred or used outside a specific geographical location (national or international). In effect, highly advanced controls can be programmed into a cryptographic blockchain currency that is not possible within a fiat system. Cryptographic currencies offer control and flexibility well beyond what a fiat currency is capable of. Lawful activity can be programmed in and unlawful activity can be programmed out. How? (Basic technical overview): In essence two cryptographic currency tokens would be created. Firstly, a rights token (RST) and secondly a cryptographic currency i.e. a New Zealand cryptographic dollar (NZCD). Both tokens would be created via central-bank/government and would have a symbiotic relationship with each other. The rights token would be tradable, that is to say it would be tradable for legal tender (NZCD) but in itself it would not be legal tender. It would be similar to a share certificate of a company in this respect. The rights token would receive a dividend from the usage of NZCD. A transaction fee would be deducted and held in escrow each time NZCD was transferred from one entity’s wallet to another to purchase goods and services. This function would be programmed into the blockchain currency and would be automated. For example, the fee could be say 0.1% per transaction (or something set well below any current fiat system fee). Every quarter, transaction fees would be autonomously distributed to all RST token holders on a pro-rata basis at set intervals based on the number of RSTs they own. RST token: The purpose of an RST is to incentivise and enable key stakeholder participation. It is a new form of ROI (return on investment) for the banking industry. All key stakeholders would benefit from ownership of RSTs. RST ownership could be made transferable or tradeable to qualifying entities or persons and be made divisible to say 8 decimal placings. The 8 decimal placings (the unofficial standard for cryptocurrencies) provides significant depth for a coin to expand its fungibility and allows the token to be highly divisible. Continual price-discovery through market forces would price the token’s actual market value. The initial distribution of RSTs would or could be distributed via a crowd sale to key stakeholders i.e. the banking industry, governments, individuals or other entities. A very basic example of how this could be implemented is as follows: An initial 10 million RST could be created with a portion then held for auction or for sale. A simple split of the tokens could be: • 2 million held for government or used as incentives for other entities like developers and maintainers of the system. • 4 million held and distributed to all KiwiSaver participants or held in escrow for every Kiwi citizen (KiwiSaver). • 4 million set aside for auction or sale to banks and private New Zealand investors, either all at once or in tranches over time. NZCD dollar: As little as $1,000,000 dollars could initially be issued. With the above-mentioned built-in safeguards, this level of seed-cryptographic currency would have a negligible impact on the economy. It would allow New Zealand program developers immediate access to start building out new products and economies. As and when demand rose, further NZCDs could be issued. Incentive for the government: There are a number of incentives for a government to move into this space sooner rather than later. Investment opportunities, economic growth and first-mover advantage are some of them. In 2015 a record 1 billion dollars’ worth of venture capital was invested into this space, up from 347 million in 2014. Estimates for 2016 are forecast at 5-10 billion dollars. There is more investment being channelled into this space than during the comparative early days of the internet. All of it is virtually walled out by the fiat system. Currently, the only way in or out is via unregulated international private cryptographic coin exchanges. This comes with a high level of friction and risk, which in effect has reduced the cross-border investment primarily to early VC adopters. Governments would have two clear advantages over other institutions when introducing their own cryptographic currency. The first is legitimacy and the second is immediate stability in line with the national fiat currency. Most permissionless currencies do not have these advantages. In any event, cryptographic currencies are here to stay. It would be much better for a government, looking forward, to introduce their own cryptographic national currency. This would allow software developers to build out or imbed new emerging cryptographic economies with the nation’s own cryptographic currency. Key Terms: Rights Token (RST): RSTs reward the owner with transaction fees collected on the system. A reward-based return for any transactional volume will be generated through the use of NZCD Tokens. RST Token ownership would be made transferable or tradeable to qualifying entities or persons and could be divisible to 8 decimal placings. New Zealand Cryptographic Token (NZCD): An NZCD token represents 1 New Zealand dollar. NZCDs are kept in digital wallets. A set amount would initially be created and grown over time. They have a symbiotic relationship to the RST tokens. Federated Server (closed system): Servers that run and secure the blockchain. Owned and run by a combination of key stakeholders, banks, a central bank and the government. ICO: Initial coin offering. A fundraising option to purchase RST tokens. Crowd sale: Another fundraising option. A crowd sale is used to allow stakeholders to purchase RSTs. Proceeds would be used to fund the system, incentivise stakeholders and attract appropriate developers. Price per RST: Example: if the crowd sale concludes with a total value of NZ$1,000,000,000 raised, the tokens will be valued at $1,000,000,000/10,000,000 = NZ$100.00 per 1.00000000 RST. 1 RST rewards the holder with transaction fees from NZ cryptographic dollar tokens (NZCDs) on the blockchain at 1 / 10,000,000 of all transaction fees every quarter. As an example transaction fees of NZCD could be set at say 0.1%. Scenario 1: NZ$1,000 transaction volume per day: The transaction fees collected would be $1,000 * 365 days = 365,000 / 10,000,000 RST tokens. So annual fees collected would be $365 NZCD and distributed pro rata at 0.00003650 cents per 1.00000000 RST held. Scenario 2: NZ$10,000,000 transaction volume per day: The transaction fees collected would be $10,000,000 * 365 days = 3,650,000,000 / 10,000,000 RST tokens. So annual fees collected would be $3,650,000 NZCD and distributed pro rata at 0.365 cents per 1.00000000 RST held. Scenario 3: NZ$100,000,000 transaction volume per day: The transaction fees collected would be $100,000,000 * 365 days = 365,000 / 10,000,000 RST tokens. So annual fees collected would be $36,500,000 NZCD and distributed pro rata at $3.65 per 1.00000000 RST held. About the author: Monty Kirkman is an artist and small business owner. He currently runs a small manufacturing business producing glass art giftware in Whangarei New Zealand www.maoriboy.com As a keen technologist, in 2013 he discovered the underlying technology called ‘the blockchain’. He became fascinated by the very real disruption this technology will bring to all forms of industry. One of his aims is to raise awareness to the small business community to prepare themselves for this emerging technology.
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